Re: Hydrogen Powered Supersonic Concorde Replacement

On Dec 20, 3:37 pm, Eeyore <rabbitsfriendsandrelati...@xxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:
Willie.Moo...@xxxxxxxxx wrote:
Development costs for the Sonic Cruiser were estimated at 9 billion US-
Dollars by analysts. Boeing chief executive at the time Phil Condit
has said that development cost would be well below the 12 billion US-
Dollar mentioned for the A380.

Estimates mean bugger all. Airbus estimated less than 12 billion for the A380
to begin with.

12 billion sounds about right for a totally new aircraft of that size.

"Since its inception in 2004, the 787 has had research and development costs
ranging from more than $10-12 billion."http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dreamliner

So Condit was wrong.

Taking a flight proven airframe like the XB70 Valkyrie, and modifying
it, reduce these costs further - to 25% of the cost of the A380.

You want to fly passengers around in osolete bombers (that were never even
made) now ?http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/XB-70_Valkyrie

You're a complete CRACKPOT !

Graham

Graham, other than shout idiot and crackpot what else have you to
contribute? haha.. You DO think that repeating a lie long enough
makes it true don't you? Sheez. Have ever considered meditation?
That's been known to help people like you.

See Graham, you keep responding to what YOU are thinking, rather than
to what I am saying. haha.. Need to get a reality tune-up. Ommm..

Fact is Graham, no one said I'd use the one remaining XB70 plane now
sitting at Dayton Ohio, (the largest ever made by the way). Nope, I
said I'd use a PROVEN airframe as a starting point which reduces the
non-recurring development costs of the program.

Can a supersonic jet be developed for less than $10 billion? Sure..

Sheikh Rashid put in an order for the first supersonic biz-jet from
Aerion

http://nachofoto.com/photo-of-Aerion-supersonic-business-ordered-Sheikh-Rashid-4e20a9cf0ddd

He's paying $80 million per copy, and that includes a hefty profit
margin for Executjet and others. They've got 40 open positions,
which totals $3.2 billion once fully subscribed. This is for a Mach
1.6 biz jet that's very tiny.

I'm talking about a B737 sized payload and cabin, in a Mach 3 capable
bizjet on an airframe that's been proven with some updates. I'm
estimating 12 planes would cost $2.4 billion under these
circumstances. Judging the sales rate of jets like the BBJ and other
big airframe biz jets

http://www.aviation.com/business/071112-boeing-dubai-orders.html

I'd expect another 40 or so could be sold over the development life as
bizjets - once fuel supplies were assured. At $200 million each
that's an extra $8 billion - to further spread out non-recurring
engineering charges.

The BD-10J aircraft from Bede Aircraft corporation sold for $500,000 -
for a kit, and had 63 orders before the NTSB cracked down on him
(after 3 of the 7 built crashed in quick succession - there is some
controversy over that since the BD-10J would have made a passable
supersonic weapons platform for about 1/20th the cost of typical
systems - and 24 of the 63 orders were from overseas buyers the State
Department didn't like - but didn't have a way to stop since he was
selling kits not aircraft or weapons systems) Anyway, the point is,
Jim Bede said that 63 orders for $500,000 would have let him complete
all engineering for the micro-supersonic kit-jet, which is an AMAZING
$32 million - around the cost of a single fighter jet.

Again, this is a data point in the continuum of pricing. Bede
Aircraft with a below $50 million development program for a production
run of 63 supersonic jets, Aerion with their $3.2 billion for a
production run of 40 supersonic jets. Or me, with a PRELIMINARY
ESTIMATE of $2.4 billion for 12 supersonic jets (based on a variation
of an EXISTING and PROVEN airframe design). Agressive yes. Based
soundly in reality.
.

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