First Aid Fixes For an Out-of-Control Earth

From: Tom Simonds (tsimonds_at_theworld.com)
Date: 06/02/04 

Date: Tue, 1 Jun 2004 20:42:54 -0400

First Aid Fixes For an Out-of-Control Earth

By Leonard David
Senior Space Writer

We've known that Mother Nature can be cruel, but leave it to Tinsel Town
to make environmental chaos cool.

In The Day After Tomorrow, a fast-action flick about a human-induced
ecological disaster on a planetary scale, tornadoes twist through Los
Angeles. New Delhi is inundated by a giant snowstorm. Grapefruit-sized
hail bombards Tokyo. And no good sci-fi/disaster movie can refrain
without crippling New York once more, this time with an ice age.

While many critics say the movie is scientifically suspect, that didn't
deter Memorial Day weekend theater audiences from spending more than $86
million to check out Hollywood's walk-in message about global warming.

While there's both a scientific and political whirlwind of debate
surrounding global warming, climate experts and technologists have been
looking into "what if" scenarios that might curb abrupt climate change.

Ecosystems versus "egosystems"

As countries, political camps, and action groups debate the seriousness
of global warning threats, there have been a steady-stream of scientific
studies calling attention to the issue.

As example, a recent report from the National Academies' National
Research Council (NRC) says greenhouse warming and other human
alterations of the climate system may increase the possibility of large,
rapid, and unwelcome regional or global climatic events.

A special NRC committee on abrupt climate change looked into the
implications for science and public policy. Last year, they issued their
report: Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises.

"Abrupt climate changes in the last few thousand years generally have
been less severe and affected smaller areas than some of the changes
further back in the past. Nonetheless, evidence shows that rapid climate
changes have affected societies and ecosystems substantially, especially
when the changes that brought persistent droughts occurred in regions
with human settlements," the NRC study reported. "There is no reason to
believe that abrupt climate changes will not occur again."

The NRC report also underscored the importance of not being too
fatalistic about the threats posed by abrupt climate change. "Societies
have faced both gradual and abrupt climate changes for millennia and
have learned to adapt through various mechanisms, such as moving
indoors, developing irrigation for crops, and migrating away from
inhospitable regions."

However, the study group added: "Nevertheless, because climate change is
likely to continue and may even accelerate in the coming decades,
denying the likelihood or downplaying the relevance of past abrupt
changes could be costly. Societies can take steps to face the potential
for abrupt climate change."

Taking steps

To paraphrase an adage: Everybody talks about global warming, but is
anybody doing anything about it?

A step in that direction has been labeled "geoengineering" -- options
that involve large-scale engineering of Earth's environment to combat or
counteract the effects of changes in atmospheric chemistry.

In reality, Earth is being terraformed -- that is, our ecosystem is
being modified -- although some consider it "terror-forming". The trick
now, argue some scientists, is to manipulate the environment in a
healing way.

A National Academy of Sciences (NAS) study team looked into this
prospect in 1992. Their final report was titled: Policy Implications of
Greenhouse Warming: Mitigation, Adaptation, and the Science Base. The
review was conducted under the auspices of the Committee on Science,
Engineering, and Public Policy, a unit of the councils of the National
Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the
Institute of Medicine.

This heady assessment of greenhouse warming involved nearly 50 experts,
including scientists as well as individuals with experience in
government, private industry, and public interest organizations.

The 944-page report identified what should be done now to counter
potential greenhouse warming or deal with its likely consequences.
Within the report, a "Mitigation Panel" considered options for reducing
or reversing the onset of prospective global warming.

Rifles, rockets and space mirrors

One proposal is a massive reforestation campaign used as a possible
method of slowing the buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. So
too was fertilizing vast areas of the ocean with iron to stimulate the
growth of carbon dioxide-absorbing phytoplankton.

Another option for mitigating global warming would be to try to control
our planet's radiation balance by limiting the amount of incoming
radiation from the Sun. This could be done by increasing the
reflectivity of the Earth -- its albedo. Calculations show that an
increase in planetary albedo of just 0.5 percent is adequate to halve
the effect of a carbon dioxide doubling.

Several schemes suggested involved tossing additional dust -- or
possibly soot -- into the stratosphere or very low stratosphere to
screen out sunlight. Such dust might be delivered to the stratosphere by
various means, including being fired with large rifles or rockets.

Another scheme envisioned placing thousands of large mirrors in Earth
orbit to reflect incoming sunlight. Alternatively, billions of
aluminized, hydrogen-filled balloons would be lofted into the
stratosphere to provide a reflective screen.

Also, the NAS study team thought that vast arrays of pulsed lasers at
mountain altitudes could be used to focus intense infrared beams into
the atmosphere. The laser beams are on a mission to selectively destroy
chlorofluorocarbon molecules in the atmosphere through the process of
multiphoton dissociation.

Unintended effects

In summing up their ideas, the group of experts noted that Earth's
current "inadvertent" project in geoengineering -- human-induced
greenhouse warming -- involves great uncertainty and great risk.

"Engineered countermeasures need to be evaluated but should not be
implemented without broad understanding of the direct effects and the
potential side effects, the ethical issues, and the risks. Some do have
the merit of being within the range of current short-term experience,
and others could be 'turned off' if unintended effects occur," the NAS
panel members stated.

Several of the geoengineering possibilities assessed -- including
atmospheric CFC removal, space mirrors, and the multiple balloon
stratospheric screen -- appear, with current technology or that expected
to be available soon, "to be either impractical, too cumbersome to
manage, or too expensive," the study concluded.

On the other hand, the 1992 report added that, while the ideas don't
appear to have merit today, they should be kept in mind. Technological
changes may make them more attractive in the future.

All the difference in the world

Given the numbers of advanced remote sensing spacecraft now orbiting --
and more on the way -- taking an accurate pulse of Earth's biospheric
condition is becoming more matter-of-fact science.

And that might make all the difference in the world, literally.

"The greatest value in Earth observations from space will be in
understanding the early warning signs of abrupt climate change, planning
how to respond, and to monitor the changes as they happen," said Ray
Williamson, a research professor at George Washington University's Space
Policy Institute at The Elliott School of International Affairs in
Washington, D.C.

Satellite communications and position, navigation, and timing and other
geospatial technologies will have a major role as well in all three
aspects, Williamson told SPACE.com. "Essentially, these reflect the same
aspects that are useful for meeting the challenge of large natural
disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes and the like."

Williamson said that the scale of concern, of course, would be much
greater than we see from "normal" forms of natural disasters and likely
require a nearly world-wide effort to adapt.

"There isn't much one could do to avert the changes once they had
occurred, but perhaps very early warning would provide sufficient
signals to cause countries to change habits that might lead to such a
widespread disaster to mitigate some of its affects," Williamson
concluded.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: [OT] musing on global warming
    ... was that more heating, more storms, particularly since those storms ... I used to be worried about global warming until I read a book called _Climate Crash_. ... This is basically the story of the Greenland ice cores and abrupt climate change, which has occured many, many times during the last 100,000 years, as revealed in those 2-mile-long ice columns. ... At first nothing happens except the canoe leans over more and more. ...
    (talk.origins)
  • Re: Al Gores Doomsday Clock
    ... the potentially dire consequences" global warming should be elevated ... An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and Its Implications for United ... States National Security ... because of the potentially dire ...
    (rec.music.gdead)
  • spam
    ... The Age is so religiously green that it won't report the facts about ... to Orietta and is about the fashion industry's unified support for Earth ... inventing in the global warming cause. ... One small problem with that report. ...
    (alt.gathering.rainbow)