Re: Is Saudi Arabia Running Out of Oil?

From: william mook (william.mook_at_mokindustries.com)
Date: 09/06/04

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    Date: 5 Sep 2004 19:05:47 -0700

    That's easy to say, but harder to do. Petroleum products contribute
    significantly to our standard of living. Not only with respect to the
    benefits of low cost energy, but also with respect to low cost
    fertilizers, insecticides, plastics, fabrics, you name it. If we had
    to go back to wood we'd return to the living standards of the 19th
    century. The rub of that is the technology of the 19th century
    probably cannot support more than 10% of the people alive today using
    all the surface of the Earth. Reduced food output, increased use of
    natural fibers, and so forth, account for much of this change - all
    things directly related to low-cost petroleum products.

    So, its easy to say you can go back to coal or wood fired steam
    boilers - its far more costly than you realize. The boilers
    themselves are made of steel. The steel requires carbon sources to be
    made. The steel requires energy itself to be extracted and reduced.
    Increase the cost of energy and the cost of everything increases.

    In face of these spiraling costs output of foods, drugs, fabrics, you
    name it is seriously constricted. Already a significant number of
    people are living on the edge throughout the world. This will throw
    2/3 of the world's population over the edge - into mass starvation.

    People will not sit idly by and starve to death. There will be
    repurcussions. These include, widespread diseases uncontrolled by the
    medical community since the no longer have the resources to combat
    diseases, and this will be on the scale of a pandemic. Also,
    widespread political unrest. Marshall law is likely. War even more
    likely. The use of chemical, biological and nuclear weapons will take
    their toll.

    What you say is easy to say. The consequences of going back to wood
    are huge. After the die off, after the wars, after the pandemics,
    yes, the survivors may be able to burn wood and use it to live in some
    sort of post collapse world. But it won't be you and it won't be easy
    for everyone who passes through the eye of the die-off needle.

    That's why we need to get to work to expand low-cost synthetic oils as
    a stop gap measure toward a wealthier happier planet for everyone.

    "Rodney Kelp" <Rodneykelp605@hotmail.com> wrote in message news:<NpGdnQVejrO06abcRVn-qw@adelphia.com>...
    > I have no problem going back to coal or wood fired steam boiler power. I'm
    > not in a great deal of a hurry.
    >
    > "william mook" <william.mook@mokindustries.com> wrote in message
    > news:407c5321.0408122027.7ba7df36@posting.google.com...
    > > http://www.saudi-us-relations.org/energy/saudi-energy-reserves.html
    > >
    > > Reserves and Future Potential:
    > >
    > > Saudi Aramco's oil and gas reserves conform to industry standards.
    > > Reserves attributable to enhanced oil recovery (EOR) processes are
    > > excluded, underscoring the conservative nature of the Company's
    > > reserves. Year-end 2003 proved oil reserves totaled 260 billion
    > > barrels. Incremental probable and possible reserves (over and above
    > > the 260 billion barrels) are estimated to be 103 billion barrels.
    > > Exploration, delineation and development efforts have increased Saudi
    > > Aramco's oil initially in place from 600 to 700 billion barrels during
    > > the past 20 years. Vast unexplored acreage exists in the Rub' al Khali
    > > desert region, the northern basin (along the border with Iraq) and the
    > > offshore Red Sea Basin. US Geological Survey 2000 projections point to
    > > additional recoverable oil resources ranging from 29 to 161 billion
    > > barrels to be discovered in Saudi Arabia by 2025. The Company projects
    > > its oil initially in place volume to reach 900 billion barrels by the
    > > same date.
    > >
    > >
    > > * * *
    > >
    > > If I read this right we're about 2 years away from reaching the
    > > Hubbert hump. (with 3.5 billion barrels per year produced)
    >
    >
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