Re: How high will oil prices go?

retrogrouch_at_comcast.net
Date: 10/11/04 

Date: Mon, 11 Oct 2004 23:09:25 GMT

On Mon, 11 Oct 2004 20:50:33 GMT, "Fred B. McGalliard"
<frederick.b.mcgalliard@boeing.com> wrote:

>
><retrogrouch@comcast.net> wrote in message
>news:a8flm0h49359of38a4ecu5vc5r9kb7k558@4ax.com...
>...
>> The notion that conservation, alternative fuels etc. will do anything
>> significant short term is absurd. And your idea that increased
>> production is possible ignores the facts that the bottle neck is in
>> refining capacity not pumping.
>
>Well, conservation can make a big dent in a few weeks, but it would normally
>have a 2-5 year flow, where the consumers have a chance to change their
>vehicle mix and such. And the coal to fuel plants are probably 3-5 years in
>the building, although a country with a real strong interest might be able
>to dash into production sooner than that with enough plant capacity to have
>a real impact. I thought the price of oil took into consideration avoiding
>making gas expensive enough that American consumers buy economy compacts
>instead of SUVs, and the projected future price has to remain low enough to
>keep major coal producing countries from putting out the money to become
>competitors. Of course we should see the precursors to this. China puts a
>high tax on imported oil and starts a coal oil pilot plant with options.
>Then suddenly the price drops, and the plans go on hold. I imagined that the
>price would drop to prevent the Chinese, and the Americans, from quite
>reaching the stage where they negotiate the pilot plant. If you were looking
>to sell trillions of dollars of oil to the two largest coal countries on
>earth, would you want them to think too much on what a bundle they could
>make if they made their own? So you are right about what you said, but I
>still expect the price to drop dramatically in a few months. Wouldn't be the
>first time I got it wrong.

I fully expect they will go down also. But for different reasons. I
believe OPEC and the Saudis have run things up intentionally, because
they are not happy with the Bush foreign policy and this is their
contribution to bringing him down. Look at the composition of OPEC.
Iran, Venezuela, Nigeria, Algeria for a few that would much rather see
Bush gone.

____
"Russia does not have in its possession any trustworthy data that
would support the existence of nuclear weapons on any weapons of mass
destruction in Iraq, and we have not received from our partners such
information as yet," Putin told a press conference after his recent
meetings with Tony Blair in the Russian countryside, including the
British government's recently disclosed dossier that alleges Saddam
has weapons of mass destruction that he's ready to use.
 Oct 17, 2002
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/DJ17Ak03.html

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