Re: Rising oil prices boost renewable energy

From: Chris Torek (nospam_at_torek.net)
Date: 10/25/04 

Date: 25 Oct 2004 15:50:21 GMT

In article <news:783673e6.0410241247.6dc9947f@posting.google.com>
Eric Gisin <ericgisin@hotmail.com> wrote:
>http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6271966/
>
>Do people agree with these prices for electricity? I thought coal was much
>cheaper, what gives?
>
>"The Energy Information Administration has calculated the average price -
>factoring in fuel, construction and operating costs - of various electricity
>sources over 20 years starting in 2010. It estimates that wind would cost
>$50.54 per megawatt hour, compared with $61.32 for nuclear power, $53.42 for
>coal and $49.66 for natural gas."

Coal plants are much more capital-intensive than natural gas plants
($500/kW for a CCGT plant, vs $750--1000/kW for coal). The price
goes up in the future when emissions controls become stricter.

The fuel for coal plants is much cheaper than that for gas plants
at the moment (coal runs anywhere from $6 to $30 per ton, depending
on type and sulfur content, while gas -- which used to be $2/mcf --
is now $5 to $8 per mcf).

Whether I "agree" with those prices depends on what assumptions
they made for their capital costs, interest rates, and fuel prices.
Changing the cost of money from 5% to 10% makes a huge difference,
for instance. Similarly, a 50%-efficient CCGT's fuel cost alone
is $49/MWh with gas at $7, while it drops to $28/MWh at $4.

>Does anyone have costs for next-gen gas-cooled nuclear? How about solar PV?

Nuclear is hard to predict. The last few "old tech" plants built in
the US were suppose to cost $500/kW but ended up costing $5000/kW;
the latter is what solar PV costs now (w/o storage). 

-- 
In-Real-Life: Chris Torek, Wind River Systems
Salt Lake City, UT, USA (40°39.22'N, 111°50.29'W)  +1 801 277 2603
email: forget about it   http://web.torek.net/torek/index.html
Reading email is like searching for food in the garbage, thanks to spammers.

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