International Energy Agency accepts Peak Oil (sortof)

From: H. E. Taylor (het_at_despam.autobahn.mb.ca)
Date: 11/09/04 

Date: Tue, 09 Nov 2004 14:46:57 -0800

2004/11/09: ASPO: International Energy Agency accepts Peak Oil

The International Energy Agency , IEA, has released a new report, World
Energy Outlook 2004, WEO2004 [1], which has been reviewed by the New York
Times on October 27 under the title: Oil Demands Can Be Met, but at a
High Price [2].

A month ago, at a conference in Abu Dhabi, I met Fatih Birol, the Agency's
Chief Economist and principal author of the report. During a coffee break,
we discussed the upcoming release, and he stated that we in ASPO would
probably appreciate it. The New York Times article was therefore a
disappointment, indicating that the IEA had once again copied the grossly
implausible energy outlook released by the US Energy Information
Administration (EIA) in April [3]. The New York Times message was 'that
world oil demand will grow by about 50 percent to 121 million barrels a
day by 2030'. Chapter 3 in the Outlook, 'Oil Market Outlook', covers
this forecast, but careful reading delivers a completely different message,
namely that peak-oil is around the corner. Indeed Fatih Birol's remarks
was true: the Outlook does now start to discuss crude oil supply the same
way as we do in ASPO [4], referring to peak-oil, backdating, creaming
curves, and the other techniques that we have been using. The problem
with Chapter 3 is that the reader needs to have detailed knowledge to
understand the true message. Below, I will try to give the code needed,
the Uppsala code.
[...]
<http://www.peakoil.net/uhdsg/weo2004/TheUppsalaCode.html>

There is a minimalistic version (no gfx) of the same article here,
if you are on dialup

2004/11/09: EnergyBulletin: International Energy Agency accepts Peak Oil
<http://www.energybulletin.net/3043.html>

<regards>
-het

PS. The IEA report itself.
        2004/10/26: IEA: IEA Director Releases Latest World Energy Outlook, Says
        Current Energy Trends "Call for Urgent and Decisive Policy Responses"
        <http://www.iea.org/Textbase/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=137>

        The document itself is $$$, but the Summary is free here:
        2004//: IEA: (pdf) World Energy Outlook 2004 - Summary
        <http://library.iea.org/dbtw-wpd/textbase/npsum/WEO2004SUM.pdf>

PPS.
        <http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/immigrate/>
        <http://www.marryanamerican.ca> 

-- 
"Every time history repeats itself, the price goes up."
 -stolen .sig 
Energy Alternatives: http://www.autobahn.mb.ca/~het/energy/energy.html
H.E. Taylor  http://www.autobahn.mb.ca/~het/

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