Re: International Energy Agency accepts Peak Oil (sortof)

From: Bob Ehrlich (bobehrlich_at_comcast.net)
Date: 11/09/04 

Date: Tue, 09 Nov 2004 14:44:46 -0700

H. E. Taylor wrote:
> 2004/11/09: ASPO: International Energy Agency accepts Peak Oil
>
> The International Energy Agency , IEA, has released a new report, World
> Energy Outlook 2004, WEO2004 [1], which has been reviewed by the New York
> Times on October 27 under the title: Oil Demands Can Be Met, but at a
> High Price [2].
>
> A month ago, at a conference in Abu Dhabi, I met Fatih Birol, the Agency's
> Chief Economist and principal author of the report. During a coffee break,
> we discussed the upcoming release, and he stated that we in ASPO would
> probably appreciate it. The New York Times article was therefore a
> disappointment, indicating that the IEA had once again copied the grossly
> implausible energy outlook released by the US Energy Information
> Administration (EIA) in April [3]. The New York Times message was 'that
> world oil demand will grow by about 50 percent to 121 million barrels a
> day by 2030'. Chapter 3 in the Outlook, 'Oil Market Outlook', covers
> this forecast, but careful reading delivers a completely different message,
> namely that peak-oil is around the corner. Indeed Fatih Birol's remarks
> was true: the Outlook does now start to discuss crude oil supply the same
> way as we do in ASPO [4], referring to peak-oil, backdating, creaming
> curves, and the other techniques that we have been using. The problem
> with Chapter 3 is that the reader needs to have detailed knowledge to
> understand the true message. Below, I will try to give the code needed,
> the Uppsala code.
> [...]
> <http://www.peakoil.net/uhdsg/weo2004/TheUppsalaCode.html>
>
> There is a minimalistic version (no gfx) of the same article here,
> if you are on dialup
>
> 2004/11/09: EnergyBulletin: International Energy Agency accepts Peak Oil
> <http://www.energybulletin.net/3043.html>
>
> <regards>
> -het
>
> PS. The IEA report itself.
> 2004/10/26: IEA: IEA Director Releases Latest World Energy Outlook, Says
> Current Energy Trends "Call for Urgent and Decisive Policy Responses"
> <http://www.iea.org/Textbase/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=137>
>
> The document itself is $$$, but the Summary is free here:
> 2004//: IEA: (pdf) World Energy Outlook 2004 - Summary
> <http://library.iea.org/dbtw-wpd/textbase/npsum/WEO2004SUM.pdf>
>
> PPS.
> <http://www.cic.gc.ca/english/immigrate/>
> <http://www.marryanamerican.ca>
>

Well looks like the Mountain has come to Mohammad! We all owe you for
your tenacity in the face of a stupid majority and your willingness to
to communicate your logic to the world. IMHO the next controversy will
concern: 1) the price of crude oil that engender reduced demand and 2)
what societies will be most affected if oil prices them out of the
market? Will 3rd world economies be able to adjust without major social
breakdown?

Relevant Pages

  • Re: peak oil gradually coming out of the shadows....
    ... Output from the world's oilfields is declining faster than previously ... draft International Energy Agency report it had obtained. ... "The risk to the UK from falling oil production in coming years is ...
    (uk.politics.misc)
  • International Energy Agency accepts Peak Oil (sortof)
    ... 2004/11/09: ASPO: International Energy Agency accepts Peak Oil ... The International Energy Agency, IEA, has released a new report, World ... Energy Outlook 2004, WEO2004, which has been reviewed by the New York ... Chief Economist and principal author of the report. ...
    (sci.energy)
  • Draining the swamp: Out of Robert Mugabe Obamas top 350 campaign bundlers 68 rewarded with high stau
    ... The report defines bundlers as people who contact their friends to ... Oil and Gas Resources ... access to oil and gas resources. ... for our economy and our energy security,” ...
    (alt.politics)
  • Dealing with runaway oil prices
    ... and Development's International Energy Agency ... (IEA), the US Energy Information Administration, leading ... oil analysts concerning world production and inventory in key ... Optimism regarding non-OPEC supply growth is, however, ...
    (sci.energy)
  • Re: Welcome, Peak Oil
    ... Welcome, 'Peak Oil' By Puru Saxena Hong Kong, China ... various government sponsored energy ... could easily produce over 110 million barrels of total liquids ... Thereafter, in November 2008, the IEA released its World Energy ...
    (soc.retirement)