Re: International Energy Agency accepts Peak Oil (sortof)

From: Alex Terrell (alexterrell_at_yahoo.com)
Date: 11/30/04 

Date: 30 Nov 2004 00:42:36 -0800

"Pete Lynn" <pete@peterlynnkites.com> wrote in message news:<1101773531.445819@kyle.snap.net.nz>...
> "Alex Terrell" <alexterrell@yahoo.com> wrote in message
> news:d81e59c9.0411291455.732ac768@posting.google.com...
> >
> > 4. A combination of renewables and nuclear see us
> > through to unlimited clean electricity from Satellite Solar
> > Power, which could become feasible about 25 years after
> > someone gets serious about space exploration. Uranium
> > will last till then.
>
> It is probably about time someone pulled you up on this.

You're so kind. This is not the first or the last time someone
disagrees. Until a power source proves itself (and even then) there is
always scope for disagreement. I've even heard some people claim they
can make Earth based solar power for much less than 1c / KWHr - would
you believe it!
>
> For various economic reasons SPS is not quite the answer you think it
> is. For space most definitely, for earth based centralist power
> production, maybe but probably not, for distributed earth based energy
> production, no. Most definitely SPS will not happen anytime soon, not
> until after there is a significant off planet human presence. By then
> we will have long since found other, better, earth based solutions to
> earth based problems.
>
Maybe. Firstly, only a limited space based effort is needed. Next, you
already state "For space most definitely". SPS will almost certainly
be a high capital cost, low marginal cost business. Once used for
space activities, the marginal cost of building more SPS to serve
Earth will be very low. (In 200 years, the vast majority of our power
will be consumed off-Earth. A marinal increase in capacity will serve
all of Earth nicely)

> A number of different people, myself included, are calculating long term
> energy costs via earth based solar concentrator approaches of
> significantly less one cent per kilowatt hour.

So we won't need meter! Now where have I heard that one before. Good
luck, but I don't think we should bet the planet on it.

  This is a cost level
> that starts to make extensive distribution systems uneconomic and
> politically unacceptable. It is doubtful that SPS could compete.
> Though maybe in the very long term for specific large scale centralist
> applications, if the cost of SPS development is previously covered by
> extraterrestrial markets.

Very possible that small scale local needs are best served by solar
because of the distribution costs. What about Northern Europe and
America in Winter?
>
> In effect earth based solar concentrators have the potential to be
> almost as cheap and are far more amenable to distributed markets. SPS
> is a recipe for an uncompetitive white elephant of a monopoly.
>
The monololy issue worries me. Lack of demand doesn't. Besides, a
monopoly in white elephants is no big issue.

> I suggest you investigate the various solar concentrator approaches out
> there, including the direct hydrogen production systems, and compare
> them to SPS. Hydrogen probably works for non grid connected home energy
> storage, (stationary gas bottle), but beyond this using it for localized
> hydrocarbon synthesis seems likely.
>
> The following is a good starting point.
>
> http://www.shec-labs.com/
>
Looks good on the web. I'm surprised BP hasn't bought it.

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