Re: International Energy Agency accepts Peak Oil (sortof)

From: Pete Lynn (pete_at_peterlynnkites.com)
Date: 11/30/04 

Date: Wed, 1 Dec 2004 11:47:13 +1300

"Alex Terrell" <alexterrell@yahoo.com> wrote in message
news:d81e59c9.0411300042.7bc557a2@posting.google.com...

>
> Maybe. Firstly, only a limited space based effort is
> needed. Next, you already state "For space most
> definitely". SPS will almost certainly be a high capital
> cost, low marginal cost business. Once used for space
> activities, the marginal cost of building more SPS to serve
> Earth will be very low. (In 200 years, the vast majority of
> our power will be consumed off-Earth. A marinal
> increase in capacity will serve all of Earth nicely)

Yes, however you still have to cover the costs of distribution. The
cost savings achieved in space will also mostly apply on earth, further
decreasing any competitive advantage.

> So we won't need meter! Now where have I heard that
> one before. Good luck, but I don't think we should bet
> the planet on it.

Lower cost does not mean free. If electricity is too cheap to meter
then distribution costs are so high that production costs are
negligible. This is not an economically attractive scenario. While I
expect lower energy production costs in the future I expect distribution
costs to increase, as land values and environmental concerns increase.
Hence future energy production should likely increasingly favour a
distributed approach. SPS is not that compatible with this.

> Very possible that small scale local needs are best served
> by solar because of the distribution costs. What about
> Northern Europe and America in Winter?

Biomass and synthetic hydrocarbons, work for me, they could even be
globally traded. :-)

> The monololy issue worries me. Lack of demand doesn't.
> Besides, a monopoly in white elephants is no big issue.

And if there is a more economic alternative?

> >
> > The following is a good starting point.
> >
> > http://www.shec-labs.com/
> >
> Looks good on the web. I'm surprised BP hasn't bought
> it.

I expect a few more years work is required before these technologies can
even start being commercialized. But if similar products are anything
to go by, with increasing scales of mass production, costs should reduce
many times over. This is a very different kettle of fish to solar cells
and conventional power generation systems, and I am very hopeful.

A home CHP unit powered by both solar concentrator and chemical fuel
would likely now only cost a few thousand dollars, assuming mass
production. Some such related systems are not far from being off the
shelf. The economics are improving and these are almost viable now.

Pete.

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