Re: "Nukes are Back" -- story in Forbes magazine

From: Dan Bloomquist (EXTRApublic21_at_lakeweb.com)
Date: 01/16/05 

Date: Sun, 16 Jan 2005 01:16:45 GMT

Ian Stirling wrote:
> In sci.physics Dan Bloomquist <EXTRApublic21@lakeweb.com> wrote:
>
>>
>>beliavsky@aol.com wrote:
>>
>>>Quoting the article in the January 31, 2005 issue, by Christopher
>>>Helman, Chana R. Schoenberger, and Rob Wherry:
>>
> <snip>
>
>>>"The U.S. nuclear construction industry was presumed dead. It is
>>>anything but. If oil prices stay high, if people worry about carbon
>>>dioxide causing global warming, [and] if the Middle East stays violent,
>>>nuclear power stands a good chance of making a huge comeback in this
>>>country."
>>
> <snip>
>
>>Nuclear has virtually no effect on oil. It competes with coal.
>>Transportation energy and the grid are two different animals in the
>>present paradigm.
>
> <snip>
>
>>P.S. I'm all for nuclear energy. But it is just a dumbing down to
>>pretend it has anything to do with oil over the next few decades.
>
> If you put more electricity into the grid, then cost will go down,
> causing some substitution of electricity for other fuels.
> For example (here) ground sourced heat pumps arn't really a very viable
> option - if you can get mains gas.
> The gas is simply cheap enough that it doesn't matter if you get 5 times
> the energy out that you put in with the heat pump, electricity is
> expensive enough that it's almost a wash.
>
> Drop the price by a factor of 2. and things change in a big way.

First would be to assume that methane would be utilized for
transportation. As we import now, there is not a lot of margin.

Second is to assume displacing fossil for heating would have a major
impact. Total residential methane currently runs 8 quad. Residential
SOFC could be price competitive and extend our methane utilization.

Third is to assume that generation in surplus brings the price down. But
providers only build to the capacity for equity. While nuclear could see
$4-$5/watt with work on the system, it still means that the energy must
be sold at a profit or the provider simply won't build. Coal is
presently running $3-$5/watt. Cost of production sets the price.

>
> There is a hell of a lot of plant that uses oil/gas, and could almost
> trivially be refitted to use electricity - if it was cheap enough.
> Everything from kilns to process heaters to house heating.

http://eed.llnl.gov/flow/01flow.php
One quad for electricity.
Two quad for residential/commercial (probably mostly heating).

26 quad for transportation.

Granted, there is some 16 quad of methane going into stuff that could be
partially displace by electricity. But this means using methane for
transportation.

>
> From: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/usa.html
> "
> In 2003, the United States generated 3,848 billion kilowatthours (Kwh) of
> <snip>
> For the electric power sector, coal-fired plants accounted for 53% of
> generation, nuclear 21%, natural gas 15%, hydroelectricity 7%, oil 3%,
>
> It's probably reasonable to assume that many non-mobile users of oil can
> go to natural gas fairly easily, if the price of natural gas fell.
>
> So, that's 15+7%, or 22% of the total, or about 800 billion Kwh.
> I make that 3*10^18J, or at 40MJ/Kg, very roughly 7*10^9Kg of oil, or
> 7 million tons, if the oil and gas plants became uneconomic due to
> falling electricity prices.

The oil is incidental. It isn't enough to count. Just a slight
improvement in our driving habits would be much more significant.

I say use nuclear to process sand oil before it's to late.

Best, Dan. 

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