Re: Oil replacement


Dan Bloomquist wrote:
> bill wrote:
>
> >
> >>>they neglect the clear effects of the political unrest that caused
> >>>production to taper off in recent years
> >>
> >>What are you talking about?
> > which? the taking offline of iraq, the contested drillig in
anwr,
> > the russian economic collapse slowing the tapping of siberia, the
> > antarctic treaty slowing the tapping of the antarctic oil? are
these
> > not political?
>
> What does this have to do with what you pointed to in the article?
What
> are you talking about?
>
> >>>, as well as the production
> >>>increases that will take place as the price increases
> >>
> >>Saudi oil pumps for $1.50/bl now. That's 36 to 1. You are still
> >
> > making
> >
> >>unsupported claims.
> >
> >
> >>?, assumes a 50%
> >>
> >>>growth in demand in the next 20 years, the false analogy to the
> >
> > natural
> >
> >>>gas situation, neglects non-transportation fuel switching in it's
> >>>scenarios because it would damage their point, neglects population
> >>>dynamics, assumes linear demand inelastic to price.
> >>
> >>Would you stop pulling crap out of your hat and address the
numbers?
> >>Guys who do this for a living say much differently.
> >
> >
> > and other guys who do this for a living support my case.
>
> Cite.
>
> > for
> > every cite you have come up with, I have come up with a countercite
>
> Yea right. For some sixty lines in one post and another pile of lines

> about natural gas I got one shot the messenger and zero address the
issue.
>
> > your case seems to depend almost exclusively on the hubbert peak
> > article and sheer boggle at the quantities in question. you need
to
> > allow a little flexibility back into your thinking.
>
> Again, I have no idea what you are talking about.
>
> >>
> >>And, as you still refuse to address the rest, try google news and
> > search
> >>on: saudi ghawar
> >
> >
> > what rest?!?
>
> I'm referring to the current rate of discoveries. 15 Gb/year and
> diminishing. Your number would require 25 Gb/year for the next 30
years.
>
> I'll repost
> ---
> Here is a 'for instance'.
>
> BP shows that Iran's reserves have gone from 55Gb in '83 to 130Gb in
> '03. You would think production problems are a none issue.
>
> From:
>
http://ogj.pennnet.com/articles/article_display.cfm?Section=ONART&C=GenIn&ARTICLE_ID=226732&p=7
>
> "Iran is losing 350,000 b/d/year of oil production capacity,
Fesharaki
> said, and the decline rate could increase to 500,000 b/d/year by the
end
> of the decade. Onshore decline rates have risen to 8%/year from
7%/year
> and offshore decline rates to 13%/year."
>
> So, what is the real truth about world oil reserves?
>
> Discoveries are running some 15Gb/year yet there is 700/Gb
undiscovered?
> But that is beside the point. If discoveries are diminishing from
> 15Gb/year, {and the trend says they are), what is 'said' to be in the

> ground does not address sustained production.
>
> The USGS site has for some reason become very cryptic. Just a year
ago
> it was very easy to find numbers and sources. How about BP?
>
>
http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=2012412&contentId=2018341
>
> Get the: Oil section - print version , pdf , 678KB
>
> 1983: 723, 1993: 1023, 2003: 1146.
>
> Reserves have increased by 123Gb in the last period according to BP.
>
> The USGS has pegged undiscovered over 30 year at 650Gb and another
600Gb
> for reserve growth. In other words, they are saying that reserves
will
> increase by more than all the previously known reserves over the next
30
> years. The numbers don't jive.
>
> I could not find a break down of reserves on the USGS site anymore.
If
> they are now counting tar sand that would account for 1000Gb. But I
have
> yet to hear tar sand called 'conventional'. There is only 1 mb/d of
sand
> oil production today in Canada. Without new sources of methane, like
a
> pipeline from Alaska, this can't be ramped up without a great deal of

> waste and added investment.
> ---
>
> There is more. If you have done any reading, you will find that a lot
of
> OPEC producers have shown sudden increases in reserves without an
> accompanying source. Here, read this again.
>
> ---
> A paper by the Executive Vice President of Exxon.
> http://www.worldenergysource.com/articles/pdf/longwell_WE_v5n3.pdf
>
> Demand has outpaced discoveries since 1980 and the gap is growing.
Now
> I've offered a rather optimistic paper. But I'm not much of a
believer,
> I like seeing numbers that can be backed. I've also run into stuff
like
> this:
>
>
http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/08B97BCF-7BE6-4F1D-A846-7ACB9B0F8894.htm
>
> Why is this problematic? Well, non OPEC producers are largely moving
> into decline. Saudi Arabia is promising to increase production to
offset
> these declines and growing demand. But if the mother of all fields is
in
> decline can they keep this promise?
>
> You see, it is not how much oil is in the ground but production that
> counts. Demand is expected to eclipse 35 Gb/year in a couple of
decades.
> If you look at Mr. Longwell's charts, demand is expected to reach 40
> Gb/year by 2020.
>
> ---
> --------
>
> I'd like to offer an example of how markets do not anticipate further

> necessity. I thought I would do this with a resource that looks to be

> peaking now. U.S. natural gas. To tell the truth, I was rather
startled
> at what I've found. A third of our natgas comes from Texas.
>
> http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/GGW%20PAPER%201.pdf
>
> While new wells are up the decline rates are are quite high.
> http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/hist/na1170_nus_8a.htm
>
> Overall, drilling rigs have doubled in the last five years but
> production continues to decline.
> http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9050us2m.htm
>
> The 'market' does not seem to be providing a replacement in a timely
> manor. Instead, higher gas prices are pushing industrial users out of

> the country. The market is working against our prosperity.
>
> http://www.globalpublicmedia.com/transcripts/256
>

and in spite of all that, nat gas is still the cheapest fuel/btu
on the market. the price has not gone up to the point where the
marginal fuels become recoverable.

http://www.bae.umn.edu/extens/energy/cornburners.html

.

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