Re: Cost per mile over 10 yr life?

On Tue, 24 May 2005 22:39:34 -0700, "Fritz Schlunder" <me@xxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:

>
>"BobG" <bobgardner@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
>news:1116981574.649915.106310@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
>> >>Did you amortize the initial costs of each car?
>> >===================
>> >I used the numbers from my car. I paid $13000 cash for it used, so I
>> >put $1300 a year. Did I do it right?
>> =================
>> I don't see that in your list of costs.
>> What figure did you use for the electric car?
>> ======================
>> Used the same $13000 for the electric and gas car to keep things about
>> equal... $500 for tires, $1200 a yr for insurance, $1000 a yr for
>> repairs, gas car had oil changes 3 times a yr, elec car had $2000 for
>> batts every 2.5 yrs.... used 30KW motor 1hr a day at $.10 and $.12 per
>> KWHr
>> Cost per mile for elec car was always cheaper.
>
>
>$2000 for a 30kWh battery pack? Seems awfully cheap, is that supposed to be
>lead acid? I usually discount the possibility of lead acid electric
>vehicles, they are just far too impractical. Nickel metal hydride batteries
>have come down dramatically in price though over the past few years. I
>believe you can purchase NiMH "AA" size Lenmar NoMEM Pro batteries for
>around $200-$250/kWh if you buy them in 10,000+ unit quantity. Expecting
>dramatically lower prices is probably not too realistic since nickel and
>lanthanum (representative metal as part of the metal hydride electrode) are
>quite expensive. Presumably $200/kWh is not too dramatically higher than
>the overall materials cost.
>
>So a 30kWh NiMH pack might run maybe in a the neighborhood of $7000. This
>will dramatically alter the economics of the electric car, even if the rest
>of the car is the same price. You also need an expensive charger to mount
>in your garage (what, no garage? you live in an apartment complex with no
>high power outlets available?).
>
>A 30kWh lead acid battery pack would be unacceptably large for a normal
>sized car. For comparison the GM EV1 used a 16.5kWh (1C discharge rate)
>lead acid pack that was so big they decided to design out the back seat.
>They needed the volume for the batteries.
>
>If compared against a gasoline vehicle of comparable "econo-boxishness" the
>relative economic attractiveness increases for the electric vehicle if it is
>a total hardcore econo-box with a relatively small battery pack. In other
>words the gas vs. electric economics for a great big electric SUV are
>distinctly worse than for a Geo Metro like electric car.
>
>In my own calculations assuming a NiMH battery pack it would seem on a
>$/mile basis a comparable electric car won't have any chance until the price

NiMH is not the best solution for a pure EV.. (Not an energy efficient
technology, see page 21 of "15_Batteries.pdf" link supplied below).

>of gasoline reaches very roughly $5/gallon. The electric car will still be
>less versatile unless ultra rapid charging stations become readily available
>everywhere (especially on interstate highways). Although the recently
>announced Toshiba Li-Ion battery made news with its claimed ability to be
>recharged to 80% of capacity in 1 minute, this isn't that special. As far
>as I can tell both lead acid and NiMH cells can also be ultra rapid charged
>if the cells are designed for it, and if they are kept adequately cool (IE:
>need serious water cooling). Some restrictions still apply, but presumably
>even the original GM EV1 could be very fast charged with a 50kW charger,
>thus restoring a significant capacity in 5 minutes.
>
>Assuming electricity is generated primarily from coal (which it is in the
>US), then the EV doesn't have any real environmental advantage either.
>Consider these efficiencies: coal to electric 40%, distribute power to house
>90%, combined charger plus battery chemistry storage/discharge efficiency
>68%, motor controller plus motor efficiency 85%. These are all in series so

No.. Li-ion is way more efficient.. Charging is more efficient.
(Recent breakthrough extend the cycle lifetime >100x).

http://web.mit.edu/2.009/www/lectures/15_Batteries.pdf

Variable motor speed controls are in 93%+ category.

Currently EV's use about 140wh to160wh per mile with room for
improvement. We dedicated designs we could probably get that number
down to 100wh per mile.

http://media.mitsubishi-motors.com/pressrelease/e/corporate/detail1269.html

Other Items..
Oil derived fuels will soon not be available to many consumers.

Thus one must factor in the losses and cost equivalents of making a
suitable fuel for those vehicles from coal. Then there are the
environmental aspects of using all that carbon.

Ultimately, we will need to create transportation technology which
is not totally dependant on using carbon based fuels.


>to find ultimate efficiency just multiply them together for an overall
>chemical energy to mechanical energy at the wheels efficiency of 21%. That
>is really pitiful... Modern internal combustion gasoline engines +
>drivetrain can and do already exceed this figure. Oil is somewhat cleaner
>and produces less CO2 for a given amount of energy than coal. In other
>words, the overall system may produce significantly more CO2 and possibly
>other pollutants. Electricity operating cost may still be lower though
>since coal is very cheap per unit energy compared to oil, though partly
>because coal isn't taxed like gasoline.
>
>Coal to oil plants would likely be more efficient overall and cheaper than
>using electric vehicles.
>
>My general conclusion is electric vehicles are simply dramatically less
>practical than oil powered vehicles. You pay distinctly more and you get
>far less. On the other hand, improvements are still being made, and they
>may yet be adequately practical to become at least somewhat economically
>competitive since gasoline could quite conceivably exceed $5/gallon in the
>not that distant future.
>
>Electric vehicles have some other interesting properties however. Electric
>motors, motor controllers, and battery chargers are all expensive but can
>all conceivably be made to last vastly in excess of around 150,000 miles.
>Even if the chassis wore out, the car would still have real salvageable
>value to it. Those components could be directly placed in a new chassis and
>continue to function perhaps even longer than 1,000,000 miles. Additionally
>the battery pack can be recycled. Since most of the battery pack cost is in
>the materials, and since NiMH EV battery packs could presumably be very
>effectively recycled, the battery pack also retains great value after it has
>reached the end of its immediate life expectancy. This only applies for
>NiMH batteries however, as lead acid batteries are already all recycled, and
>lead is incredibly cheap (I seem to recall $400/ton for lead vs. $10,000/ton
>for nickel on the London Metals Exchange some time ago). In other words
>lead acid battery packs retain relatively little value after the end of
>their initial life.
>
>With today's technology it might even be possible to make EVs overall
>cheaper to operate over a person's lifetime than internal combustion engine
>vehicles. Maybe... It would have to be done right.
>

You have yet to apply an scale of economies to any of your calcs..
Batteries become cheaper.. (especially when they start recycling
materials).
Electronics become cheaper..

Additional EV advantages over ICE vehicles.
Overall design is much simpler..
Weight is significantly reduced..
No power train, emiision(catalyitc conv), noise
reduction(muffler), low voltage electrical generation/storage, or
thermal energy waste management systems which results in smaller
tires, suspension, frame, brakes, steering, etc..
Standby braking system lasts lifetime of car.
A/C lasts lifetime of car.
( Hermetically sealed compressor replaces non-sealed versions)
Primary charger/(inverter?) located in parking facilities.
(re-used for many vehicles over it's lifetime.)

Social issues can be solved
Apartments can be required to install common use charging stalls.
etc.. (Power usage/billing handled by utility via standardized
power/optical data link between car and charger.)
.

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