Re: A world-changing event
- From: analyst41@xxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: 14 Aug 2005 15:01:45 -0700
Bob Eldred wrote:
> <analyst41@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
> news:1123892931.226281.259960@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> > http://www.stirlingenergy.com/breaking_news.htm
> >
> > start quote:
> >
> > PHOENIX, Arizona, Aug. 10, 2005 - Stirling Energy Systems, Inc. ( SES
> > ) today announced an agreement with Edison International (NYSE: EIX )
> > subsidiary Southern California Edison (SCE), the nation's leading
> > purchaser of renewable energy, that will result in construction of a
> > massive, 4,500-acre solar generating station in Southern California.
> > When completed, this power station will be the world's largest solar
> > facility, capable of producing more electricity than all other U.S.
> > solar projects combined.
> >
> > The signed 20-year power purchase agreement, which is subject to
> > California Public Utilities Commission approval, calls for development
> > of a 500-megawatt (MW) solar project in the Mojave Desert northeast of
> > Los Angeles , using Stirling Energy System's innovative Stirling dish
> > technology. The agreement includes an option to expand the project to
> > 850 MW. Initially, SES would build a one MW test facility using 40 of
> > the company's 37-foot-diameter dish assemblies. Subsequently, a
> > 20,000-dish array will be constructed during a four-year period.
> >
> > end quote.
> >
> > (1) Note that this system requires no exotic minerals, no recurring
> > inputs and no emissions.
> >
> > (2) The flat-plate versus concentrator debate is over - concentrators
> > (tracking the Sun) have won.
> >
> > (3) Hopefully this also closes down the dead-end alley that is solar
> > photovoltaic.
> >
> > Once the first system is proven - it is going to be amazing how quickly
> > a significant fraction of the 10000 sq miles of solar to displace
> > coal, oil, gas and nuclear for power generation get built.
> >
> > combine massive solar generation with plug-in hybrids - and we can make
> > a serious dent in oil imports and make "peak oil" a non-issue.
>
>
> The biggest bugabo is going to turn out to be mainenance and reliability.
> The 500MWatt plant is really about a 150MWatt plant, average power, because
> it doesn't work at nite or when cloudy. That is important because that
> defines the revenue base. In otherwords it generates money like a 150MWatt
> plant but costs to install and operate like a 500MWatt plant.
Its hard to believe that the promoters of the company have not taken
this into account in the price they have negotiated for their power. I
understand that they have contracted the POWER ONLY - if they produce
power they get paid otherwise they get nothing.
Maintenance
> will be a real headache. There will be nearly 1/2 million mirrors needing
> constant cleaning and replacement. If only a tiny percent of them need
> replacing at any one time, your talking about thousands of mirrors. There
> are 20,000 four cylinder reciprocating engines, 20,000 radiators, 20,000 oil
> pumps, 20,000 water pumps, 20,000 generators, 40,000 stirring motors and
> gear trains, millions of bearings, gears, shafts, bushings and other moving
> parts. Keeping all of this running is going to be a real challenge and is
> going to be very labor intensive and expensive. People are poo-pooing flat
> plate solar cell collectors which are admittedly less efficient, but they
> have no moving parts and little maintenance requirements. I think the jury
> is still out on this.
> Bob
I believe all components have been piloted in the desert for many
years. I understand that all the mirrors are computer driven and the
system is self-diagnosing. I suspect that a highly automated
maintenance scheme has been worked out.
As far as the Stirling Engines are concerned - they might be the weakst
link - but I assume that the Mr Slawson the chairman of SES has decided
to gamble that they will not present unforeseen maintenance problems.
I believe he'll have to spend $40m manufacturing the first batch of
mirrors, drives and engines before he sees a penny in revenue.
Eventually, I see these types of plants being largely maintained by
robots.
.
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