Why We Need The Solar-Hydrogen Economy Now

Why We Need The Solar-Hydrogen Economy Now
By Warren D. Reynolds, Ph.D.

Dr. Reynolds has over 35 years experience in the nuclear, chemical and
pharmaceutical fields in both industry and Federal Government as a
chemical engineer and nuclear engineer. He is currently a consultant to
the environmental and industrial ecology fields. He can be reached at:
w.d.reynolds@xxxxxxx

World Permanent Oil Crises

In Chinese, the word "crisis" or "wei-chi" translates into "danger +
opportunity". We are certainly living in "revolutionary" times which
provides lots of opportunities. Today's energy systems did not arise
just through the hidden hand of market forces; although, markets played
an important role. Technology advances also played a major role. There
are three concerns that compel us to rethink U.S. energy strategy--our
environment, our economy and our security.1, 5c

Our addiction to fossil fuels (coal and oil) is literally killing us.
Fuel combustion from automobiles and power plants is the primary source
of large numbers of the health and crop-damaging and global warming air
pollutants. Oil alone is responsible for smog, nitrogen oxides, sulfur
oxides, and harmful volatile organic compounds (VOCs). This urban air
pollution is indirectly responsible for killing an estimated 310,000
Europeans and 50,000 Americans each year.2a-d To this, we must add the
regional and global destruction of forests, crops and fish by acid
rain. For example, over 50% of the Black Forest in Germany is denuded
and the soil pH is so acidic from the acid rain and VOCs that it will
not support new saplings.3a In addition, green-house gases and their
global warming consequence are causing harsh droughts, devastating
floods and decline in crop yield..

Health effects of air pollution range from minor irritation of eyes and
upper respiratory system to chronic respiratory disease, heart disease
and, lung cancer. For example, air pollution has been shown to
aggravate the frequency and severity of asthma attacks. Both short-term
and long-term exposures have also been linked with premature mortality
and reduced life span.3b

In San Jose, Costa Rica, the problem of smog is dramatic since the
entire central valley is adversely affected. A survey has shown that
60% of the tourists have no desire to return due to high levels of air
pollution. The "San Jose flu" is the nickname given for a sore throat
due to air pollution. There is a major international effort being
initiated to assist Costa Rica in making a rapid transition to the
Solar-Hydrogen Economy.

Carbon emissions from power plants are projected to increase by 45%
between 2000-2025 due to proposed construction of new coal-fired
plants. However, a renewable electricity standard of 20% would reduce
the growth in power plant carbon emissions by 59% by 2020. For the
automobile, if we add hybrid vehicles to the U.S. fleet with an average
fuel economy of 55 mpg by 2020, each vehicle would eliminate 60 tons of
global warming emissions.4

The global warming due to carbon emissions has a more sinister effect
on the earth's surface. Prof. Oechel (San Diego State University) has
stated, "as the frozen Arctic melts and exposes more of the Arctic
Ocean, there is less white surface to reflect the sun's heat back
into space. Thus, the more darker open water there is to absorb the
heat, the floating ice melts even faster. More than a third of the
summer sea ice has disappeared in the past 30 years". In addition, he
states, "as the global warming thaws and dries out more and more of
the vast tundra, old decayed vegetation releases carbon dioxide which
warms the atmosphere even more". It is a never ending increasing
annual cycle until the tundra supply is exhausted.5a

The urgency of global pollution and health effects requires that in
10-20 years, we had better have moved to a level of 50-70% replacement
of fossil fuel by solar energy to avert human and ecological
disaster.5b,c The question remains: "Can we phase out fossil fuels
before 2025?"

Population and Energy Growth

In 2004, the U.S. consumed 99.7 quad BTU (quadrillion BTU, or 1015 BTU)
of all energy, for a population of 270 million people or 0.37 quad per
million people.6 Residential energy consumption for 2004 was 11.4 quad
BTU (gas and electric).6 The U.S. has 8% of the world's population,
yet consumes over 25% of the world's energy supply to maintain its
lifestyle. Our accustomed lifestyle will automatically be reduced as
the price of energy goes up. This is already happening in regional
"pockets" within the U.S.

There has been more than a doubling of the world's population since
1950, but the global economy has increased 6-fold from $6 trillion to
$37 trillion.7a The population growth has been responsible for roughly
half of the growth in global demand for goods and services since 1950.
The other half has been rising affluence of the major nations. Even a
small percentage increase in population adds up to an enormous
additional burden on the Earth's natural systems and resources. In
effect, the global economy, as now structured, is outgrowing the
Earth's ecosystem.

We see the signs of this stress on the ecosystem due to our large
fossil energy consumption. We have collapsing fisheries, rising
temperatures, more destructive storms, eroding soils, shrinking
forests, disappearing species and falling water tables. One can go on
down the list. These are all manifestations of increasing stress from a
global economy that is outgrowing its support system.

Energy Options

In 2005, the world produced 425 quad BTU (1015 BTU) from petroleum
(primary level), coal, natural gas, nuclear fission, and renewable
sources (hydroelectric, biomass, geothermal, solar, and wind). This
breaks down as follows5b:

Petroleum 36.8%

Coal 25.2%

Natural gas 26%

Nuclear 7.5%

Renewable 3.6% (made up of hydroelectric 2.4%, biomass 0.17%, solar
0.60%, wind 0.03%, geothermal 0.43%)

Although biomass is a "renewable" it is also a carbon-based fuel
that can be burned directly or converted into other carbon-based fuels
such as ethanol to generate carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas. One might
argue that since the carbon dioxide came from a biomass that it would
return to grow plants making it a zero balance on carbon dioxide.
However, the atmospheric half-life of carbon dioxide is greater than
two years yielding an impact on the total reservoir of atmospheric
carbon dioxide. This leaves nuclear and the remaining renewables
(hydroelectric, solar, wind, geothermal and tidal) as our only
non-carbon energy options.7b

1. Nuclear Power

As recently as the 1970s, there was almost universal agreement on the
notion that nuclear power was the energy source of the future. This
high technology power generator was seen as the inevitable replacement
for fossil fuels. Thousands of nuclear reactors, with generating
capacities as high as 4,000 gigawatts (109 watts) were projected
worldwide by the year 2000 according to the International Atomic Energy
Agency.9

The 1980s witnessed a virtual worldwide collapse of orders for new
nuclear power plants. The previous 10 years (1970-80) had been marked
by frequent technical mishaps, serious accidents, huge cost
escalations, and a rapid decline in public acceptance of nuclear power.
Since 1987, many European countries have abandoned the use of nuclear
energy.10a,b Austria (1978), Sweden (1980) and Italy (1987) voted to
oppose or phase out nuclear while Ireland prevented a nuclear program
there. Poland stopped the construction of a nuclear plant. Belgium,
Germany, Netherlands, Spain, and Sweden decided not to build new plants
and intend to phase out nuclear power. Germany has agreed to shut down
all nuclear power plants by 2020.10b Switzerland has had a moratorium
on construction of nuclear power plants for 10 years. Electricity
planners were beginning to favor faster and cheaper efficiency
improvements over commitments to massive centralized nuclear power
stations.10a

Today, nuclear power has fallen far short of expectations. Just 343
gigawatts of nuclear power are actually in use, which is less than
1/10th of the amount expected. Currently, nuclear power provides about
7% of the world's electrical demand. Over the past 25 years in the
U.S., no nuclear power plants have been built while a growing number of
aging reactors are retired. These massive centralized units are now
dinosaurs that are costing the public to phase them out.10b

The reasons for the collapse of nuclear power systems include: safety
problems, inability to dispose of nuclear waste, and the potential
uncontrolled proliferation of fissile materials in the hands of
terrorists. In the late '80s and early '90s, The Three-Mile Island,
Chernobyl and the Monju breeder (Sea of Japan) nuclear incidents led
the death knell of the nuclear industry.10a As serious as these
problems are, there is a secondary and more fundamental failure of
nuclear energy to establish itself as an economically competitive means
of generating electricity. By taking into account the cost of uranium
mining, processing, isotope enrichment, and conversion to nuclear power
rods, there is only a net 3% margin over cost at the current electric
rate.10c However, with Government subsidies, it was a little more
profitable for the nuclear power companies. Thus, nuclear fission power
is no longer an option.

Controlled nuclear fusion, i.e. hydrogen fusion, is also not an option.
In 1950, Dr. Edward Teller theorized the existence of nuclear fusion.
However, even with heavy Government research subsidy in the intervening
50 years, there has not been any demonstrated sustainable controlled
nuclear fusion power source. Nuclear fusion is now waiting on advances
in superconducting magnets and new alloys for high temperature
containment. Both of these are large technical obstacles. In addition,
there is only a 100 years' supply of the lithium-tritium fuel. These
problems are not expected to be overcome in the foreseeable future.
Government funding for nuclear fusion has declined over the past 5
years and is expected to decline in the future.11 Even with massive
Government funding, nuclear fusion would not expected to be
commercialized until after 2060 if at all. Thus, nuclear fusion will
NOT be available when the remaining fossil fuel supply is exhausted. We
now have to actively develop other energy options while we still have
sufficient fossil fuel to make the transition.

2. Renewables

Renewable energy has become big business. In 2004, global investment in
renewable energy set a new record of $30 billion.12a A major
transition to renewable energy is already in motion in Europe and Japan
with the U.S. lagging far behind. At the current rate of growth of the
Solar-Hydrogen Economy, in 15 years we will see 30% of the world's
energy as renewable energy for electric power production, heating,
cooking and transportation.

The key to a reliable, diversified solar energy system based on
renewable resources will be the use of hydrogen as a major energy
carrier and storage medium. In the short term, deriving hydrogen from
natural gas for the initial generation of fuel cells would allow the
easy transition to the Solar-Hydrogen economy.

Currently, the U.S. is safely using 9 billion of cubic feet per day of
hydrogen for all sorts of petrochemical and food processes and rocket
propulsion.13

Solar-Hydrogen Economy

The 20th century was the age of the Petroleum Economy while the 21st
century is certainly the age of the Solar-Hydrogen Economy.12b The
global Solar-Hydrogen Economy that is now emerging follows a different
economic logic; one that is closer to the decrees of the information
age. Under this economic paradigm, new machines and methods are once
again being invented, while companies are restructured. A growing
number of mainstream energy companies including British Petroleum
(solar energy), Shell Oil (hydrogen, wind power, photovoltaic,
bioenergy), and General Electric (fuel cells, micro-turbines) are
investing in the solar based technologies.

1. Wind Power to Hydrogen

Wind power has also emerged as a serious option for generating
electricity and, hence hydrogen. Electric cost for wind power, in some
parts of the world, is now coming in under the cost of coal, which has
been traditionally the cheapest source of electricity generation. In
1993, wind power was selling for 7.5 cents/kWh. In 2005, because wind
turbine generated electricity has already reached technological
maturity, it is now selling for 4-6 cents/kWh with projections to 3.5
cents/kWh.14a Currently, In California, about 1.5% of State's total
electricity is produced by wind power.14b Europe could easily get 30%
of its electricity from wind power alone.

The latest wind turbine models which are made by companies based in
Canada, Germany, India, Spain and the U.S., have variable-pitch
fiberglass blades that are as long as 120 feet, electronic variable
speed drives, and microprocessor controls. In 2005, North America saw
record growth in wind turbine sales. In the US alone sales broke $3
billion in 2005 from $2 billion in 1998 and is projected to be $7.5
billion in 2010.14b

In many of the U.S. States, the wind blows at all hours of the day and
night. This intermittent wind power electric generation is ideal for
hydrogen production. In January, 2006, it was announced that one of the
first US-based hydrogen fueling stations to use electricity from wind
power to produce hydrogen from water is under way in North Dakota.
Basin Electric Power Cooperative awarded a contract to Hydrogenics
Company for construction in Minot, N. Dakota of a wind to hydrogen
system.15 This wind pathway to hydrogen will bring down its cost.

2. Solar Photovoltaic Energy to Hydrogen

The solar energy alone falling on the earth's surface each day is equal
to 6,000 times the total commercial energy use. The limiting factor is
that the sun does not shine at night. The electricity must be stored in
some fashion, whether from wind generation or photovoltaic generation.
Conversion to hydrogen generated by the electrolysis of water is the
best energy storage media. Hydrogen is nearly the environmentalist's
dream. When it burns, it emits no carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, no
volatile organic compounds, no fine particles and no sulfur dioxides.
The main by-product of hydrogen combustion is water vapor, while fuel
cell exhaust is also water vapor

The U.S. development of solar photovoltaic (PV) power started in the
mid 1950s, and was accelerated in the 1960s by the U.S. space program.
As a commercial industry in 1972, it cost $500/watt. By 1980, the
installed cost was around $100/watt and by 2005 the installed price was
between $6-8/watt while self-installed was $2/watt.16a,b

It took the PV industry 27 years to reach its first gigawatt (109
watts) of global PV capacity. Then, 4 years later, it reached 2
gigawatts. From 1994 to 1997, shipments of solar cells doubled.9,16
During the period 1997-2000, PV cell production has tripled which is a
44.3% per year compound growth.16 Residential applications make up
about 25% of the total sales. In 2006, the new Federal tax credits for
consumers that include PV cells will help to accelerate this rate of
growth in the Solar-Hydrogen Economy.17

Today's most efficient commercially available PV cells (Sanyo) operate
at around 17% efficiency. However, two separate research advances in
1999 promise to increase that to 30%. This efficiency has already been
achieved with reflected solar power to PV cells.18

Solar PV cells generated electricity can be converted into hydrogen
using a water electrolyzer. Newer advances indicate that water
electrolyzers now are nearly double the efficiency of converting solar
energy into hydrogen.19a

It takes about 52 kWh to generate and compress about 1 kg of hydrogen
at an electric cost of $3.12 using wind power base rate of $0.06/kWh
and an electrolyzer.19b However, overhead costs might bring this to
$4.60 With the newer high pressure electrolyzers, the cost would be
less. For a fuel cell car, this should get around 30 miles. Gasoline in
Sweden with the carbon tax and also Germany is now over $5.50/gal while
in Amsterdam it is near $7/gal.19c

3 Solar-Stirling Energy to Hydrogen

Solar-Stirling engine technology for generating electricity from a heat
source has been around since 1816 when the Scottish Reverend Robert
Stirling at age 25 developed the first prototype.20 A Stirling engine
is a mechanical device which operates on a closed air regenerative
thermodynamic cycle. This was 40 years ahead of Mr. M. Carnot and his
famous thermodynamic Carnot cycle on which all heat engines operate
today.20,21a

In 1937, the first Stirling engine was devised to power a small
electric generator for radio sets. In 1938, the first hot-air Stirling
engine was built, producing 16 watts. During 1946-48, the U.S. Navy had
a contract with North American Phillips for the development of a
Stirling powered electric generator.21a In 1979, the Stirling Thermal
Motors (STM) company was founded and developed the current state of the
art kinematic Stirling engine capable of 25 kW at 40% efficiency.21a
Thus, the Solar-Stirling engine at 40% efficiency is a better strategy
than PV cells (17% efficient) for generating electricity. Currently,
there are over 25 Stirling engine companies worldwide.21b

4. Fuel Cells

The technology that will transform and drive the solar-hydrogen energy
system is the fuel cell. Fuel cells use an electrochemical process that
combines hydrogen and oxygen producing water and electricity. Avoiding
the inefficiency of combustion, current fuel cells are theoretically
twice as efficient as conventional heat engines (83% vs. 32-40%), have
no moving parts, require little maintenance, and emit only water vapor.
However, current low temperature fuel cell practical efficiency for
autos is 30-35% and is being improved. In 2006, FuelCell Energy, Inc.
achieved a new performance of 56% combined efficiency in a fuel
cell/turbine system for a stationary system utilizing fuel cell's waste
heat.22a The fuel cell is not limited by the Carnot heat engine
cycle.22b,c

Fuel cells can be used in factories, offices and homes to generate
electricity. In 2005, there are over 60 fuel cell companies that
manufacture components or total systems. Up through 2005, Plug Power
company has installed over 191 stationary fuel cell systems in
factories and offices in 17 countries. However, fuel cells are more
expensive up-front but require much less maintenance costs over time
than VRLA batteries. VRLA batteries must be maintained and serviced
fairly frequently and are considered hazardous material at the end of
their life cycle which must be included in their original cost.22d

Emerging Solar-Hydrogen Energy Infrastructure

The massive centralized energy plants in the past made economic sense
when they were built large, such as 1,000 megawatts. Downsizing and
decentralization is becoming the major feature of the Solar-Hydrogen
Economy. The new economy will place an affordable, reliable, and
accessible power supply near where it is needed. This would retrace the
computer industry's path from the mainframe to desktop computers in the
past 20 years, and resurrect Thomas Edison's vision of decentralized,
small-scale power generation.23

In 1997-2000, a consortium of U.S. DOE, South Coast Air Quality
Management District and 11 companies have demonstrated the hydrogen
generation and fueling technology for hydrogen powered vehicles at the
Xerox facility in Los Angeles, for the City of West Hollywood, and
Government vehicles in Sacramento. This project is the largest "stand
alone" solar photovoltaic system for hydrogen production in the U.S. as
an advent for the California Solar-Hydrogen infrastructure. This
project paves the way to nation-wide use of solar hydrogen powered
vehicles and is the first in a series of hydrogen fueling stations
stretching across Los Angeles.24a In late 2005, California now has 16
hydrogen fueling stations with another 15 in the planning stage.24b In
January 2006, Quantum Fuel Systems Technologies delivered five Toyota
Prius hybrid vehicles that were converted to hydrogen fuel to the City
of Santa Ana, California under contract from South Coast Air Quality
Management District (AQMD). These H2 Prius vehicles are the first of
AQMD's "Clean Air Pilot Program". This program, financed by AQMD and
five southern California cities, will eventually develop and
demonstrate 30 hydrogen hybrid vehicles for these five cities.25a,b
Crash tests with autos having hydrogen tanks show that the hydrogen
disperses straight up and there is no "danger time" as with petroleum
fuel spills on the ground that can ignite or explode.25b

In recent decades, Iceland has utilized its geothermal and hydropower
sources for much of its electricity. However, it was dependent on
importing oil for the fishing fleet and other needs. In September
2000, Iceland announced that the whole nation is converting over to
hydrogen power. Iceland's President Olaf Grimsson stated, "we are
making Iceland a kind of trial base to see what we can develop for our
entire (global) society". It has strong Icelandic legislature and
European companies' support including Daimler-Chrysler (Germany), Shell
Oil (Netherlands), and Norsk Hydro (Norway).26a In 2003,
Daimler-Chrysler put three fuel cell powered urban buses into 5-day a
week operation in Reykjavik. In November 2005, the buses were inspected
and their performance exceeded all expectations. In 2006, the buses
will be placed into 7-day a week testing program to check the
reliability of their fuel cells.26b At Iceland's Keflavik Airport, a
Plug Power Co. GenCore stationary fuel cell is currently undergoing a
reliability test as a back-up power supply. The hydrogen comes from
the nearby city of Reykjavik via tank transport.26c Iceland expects to
be a net hydrogen exporter.26a

In Japan, under the WE-NET program, a wide range of development
activities are being conducted on every aspect of hydrogen energy
infrastructure. In 1997, the design of a 200,000 cubic meter liquid
hydrogen tanker ship with prismatic tanks and spherical tanks was
completed. A ship length of 290-320 meters, 48-65 meters width, twin
hull design with a speed of 25 knots was evaluated.27

Bavaria is going heavily into the Solar-Hydrogen Economy. In 1996, the
Bavarian Hydrogen Initiative, prepared by an industrial consortium and
the German Aerospace Establishment, proposed to establish containerized
liquid hydrogen (LH2) supply from the Canadian Quebec hydro-electric
project. A "LH2 Bus Demonstration Project" was tested in Munich during
1996-1998. This was successfully demonstrated.5c

The Euro-Quebec Hydro-Hydrogen Pilot Project (1992-1998)
has demonstrated, in extensive testing, the vessels necessary for
storage of liquid hydrogen, acid fuel cells for electric generation, a
hydrogen bus project in Montreal and a hydrogen powered passenger ship
in Italy. This project later included the Bavarian hydrogen bus
project.13,22

In August, 2000 Ford Motor Company issued a purchase order to Stuart
Energy Systems to evaluate its Personal Fuel Appliances over the next
two years The appliance converts water and electricity into pressurized
hydrogen for fuel cell vehicles. Stuart Energy Systems has been
collaborating with Ford Motor since 1995 on projects relating to the
hydrogen fuel infrastructure. The Stuart Appliance approach was
identified by Ford as being an effective solution to the hydrogen fuel
infrastructure.5c

It is less expensive to move hydrogen up to 1,000 miles by pipeline
than an equivalent amount of electricity. Liquid hydrogen is the safest
and most economical choice for moving energy across oceans.25c
Hydrogen is the safest of all fuels. It is 14 times lighter than air;
therefore, it rapidly disperses into the atmosphere in the event of
accidental release.25c

Pathways for Change to Solar-Hydrogen Economy

So the challenge is: how do we restructure the Petroleum Economy into
the Solar-Hydrogen Economy so that we can stabilize the eco-system
relationship and allow economic progress to continue?7

Technologies and hydrogen infrastructure, such as discussed above as
well as others are already in place, can pave the way for an energy
transition during the next 10-15 years that is as profound as the last
major energy transition which occurred over a century ago. Although the
details of the Solar-Hydrogen economy are not mapped out, the broad
outlines are clear. They suggest that the new energy economy will be
highly efficient and decentralized. Over time, hydrogen will become the
main fuel for the 21st century, derived first from natural gas but
later produced from water using solar energy. The use of natural gas as
a "bridge" to hydrogen will allow a relatively seamless sequence to a
renewable energy based system.13

The implications of a shift to the Solar-Hydrogen Economy are profound.
The world would be freed from dependence on oil, finally ending the
geopolitical nightmare that has preoccupied national security planners
for the last 50 years.13

Energy transitions do not occur in a vacuum. Past shifts have been
propelled by technological change and a range of social, economic and
environmental forces. Understanding these forces is essential for
mapping out the path that humanity may follow in the next 20 years. The
next step in the new economy is implementing mass production. The costs
of the new modular energy devices are expected to fall dramatically as
their markets expand.

Systematic change can begin slowly, but gain momentum quickly. The pace
and direction of an energy transition are determined not just by
technological developments, but also by how industries, governments and
societies respond to them.

The question arises: How can we deliver energy to a fuel cell auto
without the total hydrogen delivery infrastructure in place before
2025? A solution would be by installing small "stand alone"
solar-hydrogen generation and storage units having a single pump outlet
at each commercial gasoline station. They can be turned on or off as
the need arises. Re-plumbing this unit into multiple pump outlets can
occur as demand increases. How realistic is this goal? It could be done
by a consortium of all major oil companies agreeing on implementing the
solar-hydrogen generation units at all their gasoline stations and a
milestone table for phasing out all gasoline service. Thus, all
produced hydrogen would be the same quality with no "brand"
differences, e.g. Shell, Exxon, etc. The competition would be simply
based on cost and service. All of this is dependent on the major auto
makers moving forward with the fuel cell auto.

Economic and commercial considerations are at least as important as
technical. In the interim, many customers will be paying a premium for
environmentally clean products. Politically driven technology choices
may occur. Targets should be set and then industry should be allowed to
get on with developing the technologies and infrastructure. That is the
way to make rapid progress and to introduce hydrogen technologies
through a broad market focus, guided, but not controlled, by benign
Government regulations.28

There are seven factors that can speed the change to the Solar-Hydrogen
Economy:

(1) That renewable energy and energy efficient technologies are
available at a price which is competitive, e.g., wind power is already
competitive.

(2) That sufficient financing is available to build the solar energy
manufacturing plants and provide the 25 year solar mortgages which will
allow ordinary householders to retrofit their homes and invest in solar
shingles.

(3) That businesses are ready to play an expansive entrepreneurial role
by developing and spreading the new technologies.

(4) That supportive policies are in place at the municipal, state, and
federal levels of government; and that the equivalent subsidies be
removed from fossil fuel production which is currently subsidized to
the extent of $20 billion/year in the U.S. For example, the Federal
Government has already passed tax incentives for installation of home
PV systems in 2006.

(5) That public education campaigns promote and explain the need for
the transition.

(6) That non-profit societies, coalitions and partnerships work at the
local level to promote, educate, and lobby for the new energy economy
as the solution to global pollution and warming.

(7) That global treaties, technology transfer agreements and
investments are put in place to speed the energy changeover, equivalent
to the Manhattan Project. We have done it before and can do it again.

If these conditions are put in place, the new energy changeover can be
driven by a tightly-woven partnership in which these seven factors:
technology, capital, entrepreneurship, policy, education, citizen
activism and global co-operation. Each plays an essential role.

The bottom line on this is that from an industry point of view this
restructuring of the global economy to make it environmentally
sustainable and to enable current economic progress to continue is the
greatest investment opportunity in history. Even the past growth of the
computer market will pale in comparison. There has never been anything
like it.7

Conclusions

From the analysis of the foregoing technical and economic survey, it is
obvious why we need a Solar-Hydrogen Economy now due to the following
factors:

1) The use of fossil fuel creates global warming and air pollution

2) Air pollution creates degradation of forests, agricultural and human
health and mortality

3) Global warming is melting the Arctic ice cap.

4) Nuclear fission and nuclear fusion are not viable energy options due
to nuclear waste problems, security from terrorists, and future
shortage of nuclear fuel.

5) Due to the rapidly increasing imported oil costs, it is necessary
for the U.S. energy market to convert from fossil sources to
Solar-hydrogen sources to maintain a viable economy.



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11. Email from D. Markevich of DOE Energy Office (August, 2000).
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million (constant, 1997 dollars). This is about a 12% decline. It is
interesting to note that the 1970 funding level was $270 million.

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Energy Research.

15. "Wind-generated Electricity to Power Hydrogen Refueling
Station", announcement by Ron Rebenitsch, Mgr., Member Marketing,
Basin Electric Cooperative. See www.renewableenergyaccess.com.

16. "U.S. Photovoltaic Exports Jump" J. Johnson, Chemical and
Engineering News, 9 October, 2000, pg. 45.

17. "Federal Tax Credits for Energy Efficiency"-Energy Policy Act
of 2005. See www.energystar.gov.

18. Sunflowertm 250 by Energy Innovations. See
www.energyinnovations.com.

19. (a) AGE Electrolyzer Family, see www.accagen.com. (b) with an 87%
electrolyzer efficiency and a 20% PV efficiency would yield a net 17%
solar-hydrogen efficiency from the sun. To electrolyze water and
compress 1 kg of hydrogen would require about 52 kWh or about $5.20 at
$0.10/kWh. See "Hydrogen Extract" Batteries Digest,
www.batteriesdigest.com. (c) "Gas Prices Around the World"
CNNMoney; see www.cnnmoney.com.

20. Stirling Engine History, see www.web.mit.edu.

21. (a) Stirling Engine History, 1816-1937; www.sesusa.hypermart.net;
(b) California Distributed Energy report, "Stirling Engines" see
www.energy.ca.gov.

22. (a) FuelCell Energy Achieves Fuel Cell Efficiency Record, CE|news,
24 Feb 2006; see www.cleanedge.com. (b) See curve at
www.visonengineer.com/env/fuelcells. (c) "Hydrogen Fuel Cell" see
http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu. (d) "Putting Fuel Cell
Technology on the Map", Plug Power field experience; see Plug Power
news at www.plugpower.com.

23. Christopher Flavin (World Watch Institute) "Power Shock: The Next
Energy Revolution", 1996.

24. (a) "Solar Hydrogen Vehicle Fact ***" California Hydrogen
Business Council, 2000; (b) "UC Berkeley Program to Test Drive
Hydrogen-Powered Car", Bay City News, Dec. 26, 2005.

25. (a) "Quantum Delivers First 5 of 30 Hydrogen-Fueled Hybrids"
Green Car Congress 26 January 2006 , see www.grencarcongress.com. (b)
"Quantum Fuel Systems Selling Fleets of Hydrogen Fuel Hybrid
Vehicles" Fuel Cell Today 27 February 2006 see www.fuelcelltoday.com.
See also Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Letter, Feb.2006, vol XXI(2) see
www.hfcletter.com. (c) "Facts That Every Citizen Should Know About
Hydrogen" American Hydrogen Association, Sept 2000.

26. (a) "Iceland's Hydrogen Future", Paul Eisentein, The Car
Connection, September 2000. (b) "The Hydrogen Buses Are Back on the
Streets" 20 January 2006 Icelandic New Energy News. See
www.newenergy.is; (c) "Hydrogen Backup Power in Keflavik
International Airport", ibid.

27. "WE-NET: The National hydrogen Program of Japan Vision and
Status" K. Okano, WE-NET office, Tokyo, Japan, 1997.

28. Mark Moody-Stuart speech: "The Introduction of Hydrogen into
Energy Markets", Shell Newsletter 2000.



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