Re: Uranium availability

On May 30, 2:39 pm, T. Keating <tkuse...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
On 30 May 2007 08:22:12 -0700, bill <ford_prefec...@xxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote:



On May 29, 8:18 pm, Maximust <maxi_m...@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
dave.walt...@xxxxxxxxxxx wrote:
From the always good and informative "Nuclear is Our Future" blog at:

http://blog.niof.org/

More Russian Uranium Deposits

Worldwide, we "use" about 67,000 tons of uranium per year, 670 tons of
which is actually used (the rest is stored). Nuclear power provides
20% of world electricity, and could provide 100%, requiring 3,350 tons
per year. The US, being 5% of the world's population, uses 25% of
world energy; giving everyone American per-capita access to energy
using nuclear power would require another five-fold increase in
uranium consumption, assuming that the proportion of electricity out
of total energy is the same worldwide--totaling 16,750 tons of uranium
per year.

These eight Russian deposits contain 320,000 tons of uranium.

The math is not difficult: if their contents were used sensibly, these
eight new mines could provide all the uranium needed to fuel all the
nuclear power plants needed to provide American-style quantities of
electricity to everyone in the world for almost twenty years.

Be reminded that this is 6% of worldwide uranium reserves. That's
enough to last almost 320 years. However, there are two other major
sources of uranium: coal ash and seawater.
Uranium is present in coal ash at an average level of 4.5 parts per
million. In the US--and this is just in the US--118 million tons of
new coal ash are available every year. That comes out to 531 tons--
about 80% of the world's current uranium requirement.
Seawater is the big one, though. Uranium is present in seawater at an
average level of 3.3 parts per billion. The oceans have about
1,500,000,000,000,000,000 tons of water and thus about 4,950,000,000
tons of uranium, with 35,000 tons added per year by runoff from
rivers. Quite simply, as long as we use less than 35,000 tons of
uranium per year, uranium from seawater is being made available faster
than it is being consumed. Technically, it is a renewable resource.

Technically, yes. Practically, no. It takes way to much energy to extract
uranium from coal dust and/or seawater for them to be a valid source. Beware of
wishful thinking at a time when global crude production has peaked, as it did
in May, 2005.

In a different thread, it is estimated that uranium extraction
should be possible from sea water and coal ash at roughly $200/kg.
assuming that number is off by a full order of magnitude, and it will
really cost $2000/kg, that still only represents
3 500 000 kwh/kg / $2000/gk = $.0005/kwh in fuel costs assuming
reprocessing.

You're off by a factor of 118x.
Maximum current yield is ~35,000 kWh per kg..
Assumptions.
1GWe/3GWt reactor.
220,000 kg of U consumed per annual refueling cycle. (includes
enrichment consumption.)
90% duty factor.
95% actual production factor.
$2000 per Kg of U.
Math
1GWe * prod-f(.95) *.duty cycle (.90 )/1000 /hr = 855,000kWh/hr
Est annual production 855,000kWh*365*24 = 7.49 GWh/yr.
7.49GWh/yr / ~220,000 kg of raw U consumed == 34,045 kWh/kg.

This number does not include any personal, capital, interest, shifted
liability, construction, maintenance, enrichment, regulatory,
manufacturing, reprocessing, transportation, storage, or waste
disposal costs nor their respective energy inputs ! The above
number also fails to subtract out the mining and refining energy
inputs which increases rapidly as U ore concentration drops.

(Raw U fuel costs per kWh)
$2000 kgU/34045 kWh == $0.059 per kWh.

Notes:

Estimated price of metallic U is around $324 per Kg, Yellow cake U3O8
spot price is ~$275 per Kg and climbing rapidly.

There is no rational basis to think that climbing U prices will peak
out at $2000 per kg. The market will charge whatever the reactor
operators can pay.

Again, in my above calculation, I stated the *assuming
reprocessing*. at anything above $720/kg, reprocesing is economically
feasible, and therefore MAY be factored in to these calculations when
determining the energy produced by the extraction of 1 kg of natural
uranium.

sources:
http://www.nea.fr/html/ndd/reports/efc/efca09.pdf $720 (in 1990
dollars) cost of reprocessing)
sources vary on this.
http://www.aec.go.jp/jicst/NC/tyoki/chokei2004/chokei15/siryo1.pdf
has the cost/kg for reprocessed fuel at somewhere between $500
and $2000.

Now, that DOES mean that my number wasn't right. I neglected
the reprocessing cost. However, it could be stated that at $2000, the
first runthrough is at .05/kwh, the second runthrough is at $720/kg + .
10% at $2000, so call it $750/kg for the second runthrough. which
will give you an averaged lifecycle fuel cost of approximately .02/
kwh.
Now, there is reason to believe that there will be a peak uranium
price, there are dozens to hundreds of potential suppliers, so
competition will keep the prices down to approximately production
costs by the most economic measure attainable. unless you think that
the russian producers will collude with the canadians, americans,
japanese, and chinese to keep prices high? we've already seen
estimates of extraction costs that range as low as $200/kg from
ubiquitous sources like coal and sea water, I don't believe them, but
they only have to be within an order of magnitude to prevent an opec
type situation.

.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Uranium availability
    ... 20% of world electricity, and could provide 100%, requiring 3,350 tons ... of total energy is the same worldwide--totaling 16,750 tons of uranium ... manufacturing, reprocessing, transportation, storage, or waste ... Reprocessing yields only a small fraction of the original fuel load. ...
    (sci.energy)
  • Re: Uranium availability
    ... 20% of world electricity, and could provide 100%, requiring 3,350 tons ... world energy; giving everyone American per-capita access to energy ... of total energy is the same worldwide--totaling 16,750 tons of uranium ... manufacturing, reprocessing, transportation, storage, or waste ...
    (sci.energy)
  • Re: Shuttle Replacement Needs to Become a National Priority!!!
    ... >>haven't heard of anybody extracting gold from the oceans either. ... >>the uranium that has ever been extracted from seawater would probably ... >>cost of about $1400 per pound, ... supply a large part of the worlds energy with uranium from sea water. ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: Shuttle Replacement Needs to Become a National Priority!!!
    ... >> And how much of that uranium and thorium is recoverable at a reasonable ... > value of the energy produced. ... > contribute negligibly to the cost of energy. ... haven't heard of anybody extracting gold from the oceans either. ...
    (sci.space.policy)
  • Re: "Nuclear energy not the solution to global warming"
    ... Note that uranium occurs at about 8 ppb by mass, ... If the entire Earth had ... You could find many more links of this kind with google. ... We have still centuries or thousands years of low cost extraction ...
    (sci.energy)