A world without oil
- From: xnichols@xxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Wed, 13 Jun 2007 21:32:55 -0700
A world without oil
Scientists challenge major review of global reserves and warn that
supplies will start to run out in four years' time
By Daniel Howden
Published: 14 June 2007
"Scientists have criticised a major review of the world's remaining
oil reserves, warning that the end of oil is coming sooner than
governments and oil companies are prepared to admit.
BP's Statistical Review of World Energy, published yesterday, appears
to show that the world still has enough "proven" reserves to provide
40 years of consumption at current rates. The assessment, based on
officially reported figures, has once again pushed back the estimate
of when the world will run dry.
However, scientists led by the London-based Oil Depletion Analysis
Centre, say that global production of oil is set to peak in the next
four years before entering a steepening decline which will have
massive consequences for the world economy and the way that we live
our lives.
According to "peak oil" theory our consumption of oil will catch, then
outstrip our discovery of new reserves and we will begin to deplete
known reserves.
Colin Campbell, the head of the depletion centre, said: "It's quite a
simple theory and one that any beer drinker understands. The glass
starts full and ends empty and the faster you drink it the quicker
it's gone."
Dr Campbell, is a former chief geologist and vice-president at a
string of oil majors including BP, Shell, Fina, Exxon and
ChevronTexaco. He explains that the peak of regular oil - the cheap
and easy to extract stuff - has already come and gone in 2005. Even
when you factor in the more difficult to extract heavy oil, deep sea
reserves, polar regions and liquid taken from gas, the peak will come
as soon as 2011, he says.
This scenario is flatly denied by BP, whose chief economist Peter
Davies has dismissed the arguments of "peak oil" theorists.
"We don't believe there is an absolute resource constraint. When peak
oil comes, it is just as likely to come from consumption peaking,
perhaps because of climate change policies as from production
peaking."
http://news.independent.co.uk/sci_tech/article2656034.ece
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