Re: $100 oil: the terrible truth

Eric Gisin wrote:

Typical loony-left hysteria from the Guardian. comments inline ...

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$100 oil: the terrible truth

David Strahan
Saturday November 24, 2007
The Guardian (extract)

"As the price of crude oil sets records almost daily, the British
government remains stunningly complacent. With the $100 barrel a real
and constant threat, the prime minister's website blithely proclaims
"the world's oil and gas resources are sufficient to sustain economic
growth for the foreseeable future". Officials refuse to define what is
meant by "foreseeable", but it is clear they suffer from extreme
myopia, or worse.

How the hell is $100/bbl a "threat"? They said the same about $80/bbl.

All the evidence suggests we are rapidly approaching "peak oil", the
point when global production goes into terminal decline for geological
reasons. The industry consensus is that world output, excluding that
from the Opec producers, will peak in about 2010. It is also widely
agreed that Opec has grossly exaggerated the size of its reserves,
meaning that global output must also peak soon.

Bull***. Nothing but conspiracy theories about Saudi's reserves.
The are three countries that overstate reserves: Iran, Kuwait, ???.

There is NO industry consensus...
WSJ, Nov 19, "Oil Officials See Limit Looming on Production"
http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=53040
Predictions range from peak in 2012 to 2030 (116M bbl/day).
There is lots of undeveloped conventional oil.

Global crude oil production peaked in May, 2005

(Excel spread***)
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ipsr/t11d.xls

Since oil provides 95%
of all transport energy, as well as vital inputs to modern
agriculture, this is likely to provoke a crisis."

There are no vital oil inputs. Farms got by without it the 19th century
(horse ran on biofuel). All ammonia was coal-based until 50 years ago.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/story/0,,2216341,00.html

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