Re: The oil price in the next two years or so

Rob Dekker wrote:
"Eeyore" <rabbitsfriendsandrelations@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:485C5785.D7D2A5BD@xxxxxxxxxxxxxx

disgoftunwells wrote:

Peak oil is pretty close to a certainty. It's just when.
You mean when Americans disover that by energy efficiency measures, they
can
get by with half what they previously used ?

And then the problem goes away !

No, it does not.
Peak Oil problems are just getting started. And the the US cannot solve this
problem alone.
Let's assume for a moment that the EWG report is right and there is a 2-3%
annual decline in oil supply from now on.

Average lifetime of vehicles in the US is about 20 years, so 5% of the
vehicles gets renewed each year. If everyone would now start buying vehicles
that use HALF the gasoline (double fuel efficiency) of their previous
vehicle, then the US will save 2.5% fuel (for ground tranportation)
annually.

Actually, if only the US would do this, and only for their ground
transportation needs, then it will only have a global net effect of about 1%
reduction in consumption per year.
That is great, but not enough to compensate for the decline rate in oil
production.

So once you stop for a moment, and realize the magnitude of this global
challenge, then you could possibly imagine that blaming and pointing fingers
is not going to get us anywhere.

Graham doesn't care a lot for numbers. I went around with him on crop fuels. He never seemed to get it.
.

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