Re: Force Automakers To Go Electric
- From: "Rob Dekker" <rob@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: Fri, 2 Jan 2009 18:52:04 -0800
"Doug Houseman" <doug@xxxxxxxx> wrote in message news:doug-E03AF4.22055926122008@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
In article
<e7c770af-aa58-4dc2-9635-aba17327fd13@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
Bret Cahill <BretCahill@xxxxxxx> wrote:
Actually the grid could benefit greatly when plug-in hybrids are used
widely, when you realize that their batteries can serve as local power
sources as well as power consumption points. Here is something about that
:http://www.technologyreview.com/energy/17930/
Such systems are called vehicle-to-grid (V2G). It allows plugged-in
electric
When the third generation of PHEV come out in 2016 or so.
2016 is only 7 years from now.
So that's very reasonable in terms of system introduction.
Also, V2G systems are part of grid management systems.
In that sense, they should not depend much at all on the type of PHEVs that are on the market at any time.
V2G system development can run in parallel with PHEV development, and probably will.
The first generation (the one coming next year) is brain dead when it
comes to the grid and it will take power - no intelligence on price,
time, grid load or anything. generation 1 also can not serve as a power
storage location for the grid. Which is by the way good. The batteries
have about a 3 year life if you drive the car daily, based on current
testing - so you get to replace them in year 4. Now they are not dead -
only the memory effect leaves them with about a 60% capacity and it
takes about 100% of the energy.
Now I think you exagerate a bit.
Current battery tech like NiMH is pretty good if not abused.
I just bought a Camry Hybrid, and the battery pack has a better (10 yr) warrenty than the rest of the vehicle.
Also, the Toyota RAV-EV's that were saved from the shredder 8 years ago, are still driving around with the original battery pack in
there.
Generation 2 (right now the schedule is 2012 or 2013) will be able to
talk to the grid (or at least its control systems) and know what the
price of power is, but again it is purely a charge my battery - not a
feed the grid. Again the current state of the art for batteries does not
make the use as a grid storage device advantageous to the car owner.
Generation 3 should be able to be a storage system for the grid. Every
magazine article and conference presentation I have seen, seems to skip
directly to gen 3. Not taking into account that the standards are not
even started yet for how to talk to the grid, and the SAE, IEEE, PES,
IEC and several other standards bodies all have a say in a piece of it.
Now standards are good things and they are done by great people, but to
do them right takes time - not weeks or months - but years. Passing a
law that tells the US how to do it will disadvantage the auto companies
in the US, since this is a global market.
I don't think a global standard is needed.
The vehicles themselves should not be affected much by how the grid-charge points operate.
In that sense, I expect that local markets will operate with their own 'standard' way of talking to the grid.
This will prevent endless turf staking by any lobbyist group, and thus speed up innovation.
Your Gen 3 may be operating in certain areas much faster than you think.
OBTW - about 1 million charging stations need to go in city parking
garages, and more in company parking lots, then there are home chargers,
and other changes that need to happen.
Right now if you buy a PHEV you can in most places - charge it at
home...The infrastructure does not exist yet to make it work elsewhere -
and those city parking garages - don't have the infrastructure to put in
the charging stations. Nor do the utilities have the infrastructure to
talk to the cars.
True. Any new infrastructure is always complicated, and requires incentives that are currently not in place.
So I believe that the garage chargers are the ones that will take of quickly.
Smart (gen 3) Garage chargers essentially could be sold at Home Depot as soon as grid systems have their system in place (to talk to
these chargers).
Gen 1 is projected at 20,000 vehicles globally in 2009 and it ramps up
rapidly from there - by 2013 - there should be 1 million on the roads
globally if the projections are right (I am not a believer right now -
but the Germans proved that with high enough incentives - you can get
people to go green (don't believe me - check out the PV incentives in
Germany).
By the time Gen 3 ships - we could have 1.2 million PHEV in the US and
another 1.2 million in the EU that don't know how to act a batteries for
the grid. If it is late - there could be more than 2 million in each
location - with the right incentives it could be 3 million.
You keep mixing V2G systems with plug-in vehicles.
These are two different systems. The vehicles themselves don't need to know exactly how they are hooked up to the grid.
The grid does not need to know exactly what kind of battery is is hooked up to.
Also, your estimate of 1.2 million PHEVs in the US by gen 3 introduction (2016 in your estimate) seems somewhat low.
That's only a 0.5% market penetration 7 years from now.
Where did you get that estimate ?
vehicles (or plug-in hybrids) to serve as power sources when the grid needs
it, and as power sink when the grid has access power. This can benefit both
the plug-in hybrid owner when it is simply plugged in (pay low $ to charge,
and receive high $$ if you allow the grid to (briefly) discharge your
battery). This stabilizes the grid, and the owners of the batteries benefit
as well.
I hope this becomes true but right now battery costs are so high
compared to power plants all the wear and tear from charging and
discharging wouldn't justify the battery costs.
You could image millions of such smart plug-in points, installed in
garages for private use, but also along (urban) road sides and at parking
lots, where you would simply plug your vehicle in and recharge at night, or
make money selling your battery power at peak rates during the day. All
depending on how much you need the vehicle that day. Such a distributed
power system is a strong stabilizing force for the grid, and if smartly
implemented presents a great opportunity for grid stability and security,
as
well as a reliable and cheap way to keep your vehicle moving. All without a
drop of gasoline. The future looks promising. Now can we get the plug-in
hybrids on the market please ?
You are in Ben Bova, Robert Heinlein territory - say 2030 or 2040 - with
out a lot of tax dollars going to this effort. And to get a cross
country car will take more work than it did to get people to the moon -
at least if we keep today's vehicle mix and safety standards. OBTW - the
18 wheelers are not going away any time soon...so the vehicle mix top
end will stay and that is what drives crash standards.
Last week GM or someone was saying something about 1.6 l engines so
they aren't listening. Like I said earlier "small" engines like that
can be made as gas guzzling as you want. They are the engine of
choice of today's moheads.
1.6 l in a light truck or a full size car is a small engine. Today you
are talking 4 l easy. So that is a significant reduction - not all PHEV
will be subcompacts. Ford is looking at the Transit as one of their PHEV
in 2010 - it is a work truck - and it will need the 1.6 or 2.0 to deal
with the load it may have to carry even with the electric system.
I am happy we are moving in this direction - I just think people are not
looking at the complexity of reality in most cases.
Sure there is work to be done. Nothing happens by itself.
But many aspects of moving away from oil and towards electricity can be done independently.
V2G systems are just one part in our move to higher efficiency and reduced pollution and waste, and our goals to solve our
dependence on foreign oil (and other goals).
Obama needs to use more of a stick & carrot approach.
When they restructure everything should be interchangeable so that
drive trains can be mostly aftermarket.
All the automakers need to do is put out a chassis, body, some seats
and the drive shaft and stay out of drive trains altogether.
Bret Cahill
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