Re: predict how many hurricanes per year; direct relationship with Global Warming

From: George (George_at_george.net)
Date: 09/09/04 

Date: Thu, 9 Sep 2004 19:30:20 -0400

"Archimedes Plutonium" <a_plutonium@iw.net> wrote in message
news:4140095D.81F8E042@iw.net...
> Last few days have proved a loser of some model that ranted about
> predicting Earthquakes. I forgotten what the silly model was but it did
> grab news media attention which I suspect was what it wanted mostly--
> attention, and that it had no science value. A media publicity stunt and
> sad to say alot of science in the news is publicity stunts.
>
> But this summer was unusual weather where here in the MidWest was
> unusually cool. The last time I remember such a cool summer was in the
> early 1990s when some Philippine volcano erupted and spewed ash that
> made the summer cool. I believe there was an Indonesian volcano this
> year but the news did not cover it much if any. I guess the news media
> spends too much time on "schlock science" and not enough on real
> science.
>
> But whilst on this topic of predicting, I am thinking that a predictive
> model for how many hurricanes occurs per year should be do-able because
> we know on average how many hurricanes have occurred in the last 100
> years and we know what the average heat over the Earth's surface was for
> those 100 years. We also have an average number for Global Warming. So
> if we put all those numbers together we should be able to predict the
> average Increase in numbers of yearly hurricanes because Global Warming
> is added extra energy into the total Earth environment which means the
> number of Hurricanes should be increasing as the Global Warming
> increases.

Two points. First, the NOAA National Hurricane Prediction Center has such a
predictive model and uses it to forcast hurricanes. Secondly, hurricanes are
not a result of global warming, despite what some might like to believe.
Hurricanes have occurred throughout earth's history. Tempestite deposits
believed to be related to huge cyclone-type storms have been identiified in
Belgium, UK, and even in Kentucky (the latter occurring in Mississippian-aged
deposits). The increase in the number of hurricanes seen in recent years is
also not a result of global warming. Hurricane frequency is cyclic, that is to
say that seasons with frequent hurricanes occur in a 25-40 year cycle. In the
40 years before 1965, 14 hurricanes struck Florida. From 1965 to 1995, there
was one- Andrew. Since 1995, Hurricanes have become more frequent, so that we
are now in the upswing of a new cycle. Whether global warming is responsible
for an increase in intensity is still being debated. However, it is clear that
the water in the Atlantic Ocean is getting warmer, and warm water is a
prerequisite for tropical cylone formation. So there may be a cause and effect
relationship between the intensity of storms and global warming. Again, that is
still being debated.

> Seems like Florida in the past several months has had 4 hurricanes with
> Charley and G--- and Frances and now Ivan on the way.

Ivan hasn't struck yet. Gaston was a tropicial storm. So they've only had two
hurricanes strike Florida so far. That may change come next monday.

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