Earthquake forecasting program update Sept. 11, 2004

From: edgrsprj (edgrsprj_at_ix.netcom.com)
Date: 09/12/04 

Date: Sun, 12 Sep 2004 01:22:55 GMT

EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING PROGRAM UPDATE

Posted September 11, 2004
Web site: http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html
The information in this report represents expressions of personal opinion.

Tests run during the past few days appear to me to be providing conclusive
evidence that earthquake forecasting computer programs that I have developed
are working. They attempt to compare what are believed to be earthquake
fault zone activity related electromagnetic energy field fluctuation (EM
signal) data with similar data related to past earthquakes. When good
matches are observed it can serve as an indicator that an earthquake will
soon occur near where the previous one occurred.

This is how these latest tests were run:

The computer programs were used to compare the times for about 1000 EM
signals detected during the past year with the 25,000 5.0 magnitude and
greater earthquakes in my database. They go back to the beginning of 1990.
The x axis on the output data file was EM signal time. The y axis was
earthquake longitude. The numbers in the columns in the table (each column
is a time slice) showed how well that particular EM signal (actually they
were run in groups) matched the earthquake in that row. The earthquake
which best matched the signal in a given column was assigned the number 1
and the worst match was assigned the number 25,000.

As expected, most of the numbers had values greater than 1000. But at the
times when there were significant earthquakes the numbers in that
longitude - time area would drop into the 1 to 1000 range. And that gives
the table a type of 3 dimensional effect. Where there are clusters of
numbers lower than 1000 it looks like there is a depression or hole in the
table. And since those depressions in the table match the times of
significant earthquakes that indicates to me that the computer programs are
working. They are actually showing when there are good matches between
significant earthquakes and those EM signals.

REGARDING THAT PREDICTED CALIFORNIA EARTHQUAKE

During the past year there was a highly publicized forecast for a
significant earthquake in a certain area of California. And my table data
appear to be showing something interesting about the area around 36N and
113W. If I am interpreting the data correctly they are saying that
earthquake strain energy might be appearing in that area in a cyclic
pattern. The most recent high energy time was in early August of this year.
The previous high energy time was back around the beginning of May.

It presently takes some 4 to 12 hours of computer time to generate each of
those tables. So the work is a little slow. It should be possible to
rewrite the program code so that the tables can be generated in a matter or
minutes. But I am estimating that it will take some 40 to 80 hours of
computer programming time to make those changes. And that will not be
attempted any time soon.

Relevant Pages

  • Earthquake forecasting program Aug. 16, 2004
    ... This is an introductory report regarding a Perl language earthquake ... A computer program can be used to compare the times when those EM signals ... the first earthquake in the database the earthquake is given a rating on a 0 ...
    (comp.lang.perl.misc)
  • Earthquake forecasting program Aug. 16, 2004
    ... This is an introductory report regarding a Perl language earthquake ... A computer program can be used to compare the times when those EM signals ... the first earthquake in the database the earthquake is given a rating on a 0 ...
    (sci.geo.geology)
  • Earthquake forecasting program Aug. 16, 2004
    ... This is an introductory report regarding a Perl language earthquake ... A computer program can be used to compare the times when those EM signals ... the first earthquake in the database the earthquake is given a rating on a 0 ...
    (sci.astro)
  • Re: Earthquake forecasting program update Sept. 11, 2004
    ... > EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING PROGRAM UPDATE ... > The computer programs were used to compare the times for about 1000 EM ... > significant earthquakes that indicates to me that the computer programs are ... > significant earthquakes and those EM signals. ...
    (sci.geo.geology)
  • Heal the rift
    ... > earthquake forecasting science. ... > forecasting computer program which is now generating good results. ... > and Perl language computer programming. ... > A computer program can be used to compare the times when those EM signals ...
    (comp.lang.perl.misc)
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