Re: Runaway Global Warming Possible!

From: jonathan (Write_at_Instead.com)
Date: 01/27/05 

Date: Wed, 26 Jan 2005 22:13:00 -0500

"ošin" <ošin@ragnarok.com> wrote in message
news:eJ-dnQvqH5E1qWXcRVn-jA@whidbeytel.com...
> >> "Some iterations of the models showed the climate cooling after an
> >> injection
> >> of CO2, but these were discarded after close examination because the
> >> temperature fall resulted from an unrealistic physical mechanism, says
> >> Stainforth. In these scenarios, cold water welling up in the tropics
> >> could
> >> not be carried away by ocean currents because these were missing from the
> >> models.
> >>
> >> There are no obvious problems with the high temperature models, he says.
> >> The
> >> climateprediction.net team were left with a range of 1.9?C to 11.5?C.
> >> "The
> >> uncertainty at the upper end has exploded," says team-member Myles
> >> Allen."
> >>
> >> Discarded only the cooling models? Sounds like fudging to me...
> >
> > If you know good reasons why the model is broken in some scenarios, it
> > makes
> > sense to discard them.
>
> Pffft. Well that is not science. Ever heard of The Michelson-Morley
> Experiment? The problem most people had with it was that it *seemed* wrong.
> The strength that Einstein had over others was that he took the experimental
> result at face value. There were many others as smart or smarter than
> Einstein, but Einstein was not entrenched in preconceived notions. Others
> wasted time trying to see how the experiment must be flawed. It was not
> flawed.

The problem with these models is they don't include
Darwin. Life is becoming a primary driving force
for global climate change. Life is the source of change
and the source of the solution. Without including all the
complexities of life, politics, public opinion etc
the models are grossly simplified and
incomplete.

Number crunching climate change is little different
than number crunching a thunderstorm. Far more
accurate and insightful information can be gained
from simply watching the radar loops. From watching
the large scale patterns and behavior of the few
primary forces, rather than trying to predict the
motion of each air molecule. The butterfly effect
clearly demonstrates the folly of long term numerical
prediction of a thermodynamic system.

A system dominated by geology, impacts etc will
tend to display chaotic behavior, with large quick swings
from one extreme to the other. Interspersed with long
periods of static behavior.

A system dominated by life....Darwin....typically moves
steadily towards, then oscillates quickly around, the
optimum.

The primary variable is life...nature. Or how far or close
to a naturally evolving system will life on earth become.
A Natural society is a full democracy, the most adaptive
and powerful force for stability and creativity in the
known universe.

So it will be through the expansion and dominance of free
democracies that global climate problems will be solved.
The cure for climate change is political, not scientific.

Stop number-crunching, it's a waste of time. Place your faith
in Nature and champion the spread of democracy. The cure
for /all/ that ails this planet lies there.

Jonathan

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