Re: Early Iragi Turnout Appears Huge!

From: Charles Buckley (rijrunner_at_friiSTOPSPAM.com)
Date: 01/30/05 

Date: Sun, 30 Jan 2005 11:55:44 -0700

Fred J. McCall wrote:
> Charles Buckley <rijrunner@friiSTOPSPAM.com> wrote:
>
> :Fred J. McCall wrote:
> :> Charles Buckley <rijrunner@friiSTOPSPAM.com> wrote:
> :>
> :> :Ed Earl Ross wrote:
> :> :> Alex Terrell wrote:
> :> :>
> :> :>> No, that SHOULD be causing arab governments a lot of embarrasment
> :> :>>
> :> :> How will the non-democratic Arab leaders react?
> :> :
> :> :More importantly, what happens if the result of this election is
> :> :an anti-America theocracy?
> :>
> :> Unlikely, since at least in the near term the new government probably
> :> needs us there.
> :
> :So?
>
> So I assume they are both sane and not suicidal.

Why on Earth would you assume that?

They have to live in that region, but they have a number of
reasons to believe that the US will leave. They have a reasonable
expectation that the US can not move militarily against them barring
a significant break, but they certainly can hamper US activities.

>
> :The new government will have to establish it's independence and
> :prove whether it is sovereign. You can expect a number of anti-US
> :actions on one level, or another.
>
> To quote you, "So?"
>

So, we are dependant upon them not asking the US to leave and further
depending upon them to not invite in Al-Qaeda, or other groups whose
goals oppose the US.

> :Needing someone does not make you allies or grateful. Or, even
> :friendly.
>
> It does, however, generally prevent you from blowing your own *** off
> just because you can, if you are sane and not suicidal.
>

  Remember that goes both directions. The US can not invalidate this
election by interfering with the results. Right now, the US needs a
friendly government more than the Iraqi's need the US. That country
is trashed and already at war, but large portions of it are neutral.
A hostile government can garner a lot of domestic support by opposing
the US and escalating the war. The US does not have the manpower to
handle an escalation from the current level for any extended period.

> :> However, if that's what happens that's what happens. Democracy is
> :> like that sometimes. I would not expect such a government to last and
> :> remain a democracy. It will either suspend democracy or people will
> :> push it to be more moderate.
> :
> :Like Iran is more moderate?
>
> Iran is not a democracy. They're struggling back in that direction
> but they have a LONG way to go.
>

Iran is as much a democracy as you can expect in the region. There is
simply no tradition for that form of government in Iraq and expecting to
to be implemented overnight is suicidally stupid if you are expecting
people to.. well.. ignore the fact that they are in the middle of a
warzone that they did nothing to create or deserve, for the most part.
Wars tend to inflate extremists. It is no accident that Sadr is well
known now and had killed more Americans than Saddam, yet was virtually
nothing only 2 years ago. He's also the leader of a large - legitimate -
political party running in this election, although he is not a candidate
himself.

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