Re: Cold, hard facts defy the doomsayers


"Al Zenner" <azen@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
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"George" <george@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in
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"Dave Gerecke" <dave.gerecke@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
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Cold, hard facts defy the doomsayers
Andrew Bolt
22feb06

Another Australian conservative columnist who doesn't have a clue. If
the public heeds warnings from the scientific community about global
warming, and no environmental calamity happens, no one dies. If the
public doesn't heed warnings about global warming, and our coastal
cities are inundated, many will likely die. The fact is that global
warming is occurring, whether it is caused by manmade pollution or not.

snip

As you are abundently aware, George, the earth is not a steady state
system by any stretch of the imagination. Ice ages, interleaved with
warm (nay, hot) periods predate man's intervention.

There are many causal possibilities. A slight change in the trans-
missibility of the non-empty space between us and the sun might be
enough to trigger chaotic changes. The models just aren't refined
enough for us to have a good handle on climate and weather and it
might actually be impossible to refine either model to such a point
of refinement anyway. We're pretty certain about the impossibility
of predicting weather beyond a few days. We don't know how far out
we can predict climate with any degree of accuracy. I think that a
significant analysis by a mathematician would probably demonstrate
we're not going to be very good at that either for any period past
the next few years, perhaps even less.

It would be interesting to know if anyone is working on the overall
effects of very small, borderline measurable (if we are actually
looking,) changes to the earth's energy balance over the very large
surface area of the earth while taking into consideration known and
anticipated weather dynamics.

You are right, it appears that we have a warming trend. Fortunately
I live well inland at better than 1500 feet elevation. The nearest
large body of water is Lake Superior at ~600 feet.

Some global warming might not be completely unwelcomed where I live.
St. Louis had a high today of 50F while I had 5F this morning with
knee deep snow in the undrifted parts of my meadow. Of course that
includes compaction and evaporation. A little longer temperate
season wouldn't offend me. The problem is it likely won't stop
there.

I'm old enough that whatever is coming isn't very likely to have
a very large effect in my lifetime. If it takes a century no one
reading this within a week of posting is likely to be alive
either.

I'm also not going to get upset about the demise of the sun
regardless of the fact that if humanity as well as my descendents
survive that long they'll get to see at least the earlies stages.

I have to say I wouldn't mind coming back for it, even if that
existance only lasted a few minutes. LOL


That is a bit of a selfish attitude, don't you think? You may welcome the
warming. I doubt that those who live in the Sahel or East Africa or the
Gobi desert would welcome it with open arms, nor the Eskimos of the Arctic,
who face a huge loss of habitat, and probable extinction of the animals on
which they depend. No, the earth is not a steady state. It has undergone
many changes throughout its geologic history. Mankind was not around for
most of those changes. But we are around now. And, as we learned with
Katrina, it is not so easy dealing with sudden climatic catastrophies that
occur within our population centers. We are even less prepared for what
will undoubtedly be a global loss of coastal habitat. I for one don't see
the point in risking so many lives just to have the luxury of watching
reruns of "Friends" on the television 24/7, or the luxury of 3 ton SUVs
that get 10 mpg and get a soccer mom from her home to her child's school 2
miles away.

George


.

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