Re: Cold, hard facts defy the doomsayers


"Al Zenner" <azen@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
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"George" <george@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in
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"Al Zenner" <azen@xxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
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snip

Some global warming might not be completely unwelcomed where I live.
St. Louis had a high today of 50F while I had 5F this morning with
knee deep snow in the undrifted parts of my meadow. Of course that
includes compaction and evaporation. A little longer temperate
season wouldn't offend me. The problem is it likely won't stop
there.

I'm old enough that whatever is coming isn't very likely to have
a very large effect in my lifetime. If it takes a century no one
reading this within a week of posting is likely to be alive
either.

I'm also not going to get upset about the demise of the sun
regardless of the fact that if humanity as well as my descendents
survive that long they'll get to see at least the earlies stages.

I have to say I wouldn't mind coming back for it, even if that
existance only lasted a few minutes. LOL

That is a bit of a selfish attitude, don't you think?

It might be if it were under my control. It isn't. We don't even know
if it is under control of humanity acting in concert, but I don't
believe it is.

Do try to get some control of this anger if you want to have a
substantive
discussion, ok?

Umm, anger? If I came across as angry, my apologies. That said, some of
it is under your and my control. We control what we take from this world
just as we control what we leave behind.

People didn't believe for many years that the ozone was being affected by
manmade chemicals (some still refuse to believe it), yet NASA's satellite
data has essentially put that argument to rest. So let me ask you, what
level of data would convince you that what we are doing to this planet is
having a detrimental effect on it? How long must we collect data before we
act? And once the data is to your satisfaction, will it be too late to do
anything about it? Is it too late already?

I for one don't think it is too late, but I also believe that we have
little time to argue the point. I suspect that our grandchildren and great
grandchildren will look back at all the resources that we've squandered,
and all the filth we are leaving behind for them to clean up, and
think that we were not very intelligent at all.

I've been looking at global warming issues through the
prisim of science for at least a couple of decades now. I happen to agree
with my favorite mathematician, a brilliant woman who is so far to the
left politically that they haven't managed to devise a scale to include
her. I am, generally speaking, apolitical. What we agree on is that we
actually know very little, and that human intervention probably isn't
important enough to count.

On a cosmic time scale, that may have some truth to it. On a human time
scale, it makes a big difference, IMHO. Our children and their children
still have to live on this earth. We owe it to them to leave it in at
least as good a shape as it was in when we had lived in it. Of course,
that is just a goal, and possibly an unrealistic goal. And yet, in a world
where there are now 6.5 billion people and ever dwindling resourses, we owe
it to future generations to do all we can to curtail our incessant
appetites, and our nasty habits.

You may welcome
the warming. I doubt that those who live in the Sahel or East Africa or
the Gobi desert would welcome it with open arms, nor the Eskimos of the
Arctic, who face a huge loss of habitat, and probable extinction of the
animals on which they depend.

I'm guessing more than a few human generations to fruition. What's your
guess?

The Sahel is expanding rapidly as we speak. So is the Gobi desert. The
American Southwest has been in a prolonged drought with no end in sight.
The arctic and subarctic permafrost is melting in large regions of the
north. The glaciers in Greenland and in Antarctica are showing significant
melting. I think we have less time that you think we do.

No, the earth is not a steady state. It
has undergone many changes throughout its geologic history. Mankind was
not around for most of those changes. But we are around now. And, as
we learned with Katrina, it is not so easy dealing with sudden climatic
catastrophies that occur within our population centers.

You really believe global warming is going to happen that suddenly?

I think global warming is already here. I live in the Midwest. The
seasons are already out of whack here, and have been for a number of years.
Spring has been at least four weeks early for the last ten years. Flowers
that I wouldn't normally see bloom until mid-March I've been seeing in full
bloom by no later than mid-February, and last year, some were in bloom at
the end of January - something I've never seen before. Likewise, the
winter has seemed to come earlier and be shorter than it used to be. Our
growing season is far longer than it was when I was growing up. I grew
tomatoes in the open air from mid-April until mid-Novermber last year - the
longest I've ever been able to grow them. More than a month longer.

We are even
less prepared for what will undoubtedly be a global loss of coastal
habitat.

I don't believe "we" are going to experience that.

"We" are already experiencing it. Coastal erosion is prevalant all along
the eastern seaboard, and it is even worse along the northern coast of the
Gulf of Mexico. The Maldives, in the Indian Ocean has also seen
continuous loss of their coastline. Those Islands average about 8 feet
above sea level but may some day relatively soon be inundated.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/12/photogalleries/global_warming/photo5.html

I for one don't see the point in risking so many lives just to
have the luxury of watching reruns of "Friends" on the television 24/7,
or the luxury of 3 ton SUVs that get 10 mpg and get a soccer mom from
her home to her child's school 2 miles away.

These things may be contributory to an extent that actually makes a
difference, or they might not. Do you, or does anyone else, actually
have any math based proofs? So far all anyone has provided is a bunch
of arm waving.

The math is not as important as the chemistry and physics of the situation.
Just as it can be shown in the laboratory that chlorofluorocarbons destroy
ozone, it has been shown that an increase in CO2, methane, and other
greenhouse gases is warming the planet.

Here is a global map of methane emissions:

http://www.universetoday.com/am/publish/map_methane_emissions.html

Here is a chart of the rise in global temperatures:

http://yosemite.epa.gov/OAR/globalwarming.nsf/content/Climate.html

Here is an EPA report on Greenhouse gases and Global Warming Potential
Values

http://yosemite.epa.gov/OAR/globalwarming.nsf/UniqueKeyLookup/SHSU5BUM9T/$File/ghg_gwp.pdf


Chart 2, below, shows CO2 concentrations projected into the future for
various scenarios. All show an increase:

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/projections-of-climate-change.html

You should look at this report carefully.

That a problem exists is fact. Whether correction or avoidance is in
our hands or not is unknown. How long this will actually take is just
as unknown. There's no sense in getting excited over global warming
other than to provide adequate funding to put such brains as can come
up with answers on to resolving the questions.

Back when I was involved with R&D under government funding we had a
joke. When the government wants a baby in one month they get 9 women
pregnant. Unfortunately breakthroughs have to happen in the correct
sequence to make sense of the issues.

They certainly won't happen at all if we buried our collective heads in the
sand and ignore that there is a problem.

George


.

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