Re: Cold, hard facts defy the doomsayers

"George" <george@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in
1W3Of.833843$xm3.741773@attbi_s21:">news:1W3Of.833843$xm3.741773@attbi_s21:

Al Zenner wrote:

I've snipped a lot out for brevity, and it is still too long.

People didn't believe for many years that the ozone was being affected
by manmade chemicals (some still refuse to believe it), yet NASA's
satellite data has essentially put that argument to rest. So let me ask
you, what level of data would convince you that what we are doing to
this planet is having a detrimental effect on it? How long must we
collect data before we act? And once the data is to your satisfaction,
will it be too late to do anything about it? Is it too late already?

That ozone is affected by chemicals has always been clear. How much of
the effect comesfrom manmade chemicals vs. how much is from natural
effects is what has been questioned.

To take the next step (spread out someplace down below) the chemicals
aren't simply refrigerant class stuff. Ordinary chlorine used as
laundry bleach does it'sparton massive scales as well, along with
many other ozone gobbling chemicals we never think or hear about.

I for one don't think it is too late, but I also believe that we have
little time to argue the point. I suspect that our grandchildren and
great grandchildren will look back at all the resources that we've
squandered, and all the filth we are leaving behind for them to clean
up, and think that we were not very intelligent at all.

We're already doing that, no?

On a cosmic time scale, that may have some truth to it. On a human time
scale, it makes a big difference, IMHO. Our children and their children
still have to live on this earth. We owe it to them to leave it in at
least as good a shape as it was in when we had lived in it. Of course,
that is just a goal, and possibly an unrealistic goal. And yet, in a
world where there are now 6.5 billion people and ever dwindling
resourses, we owe it to future generations to do all we can to curtail
our incessant appetites, and our nasty habits.

That's not in tune with freedom and democracy ideals, unfortunately.

The Sahel is expanding rapidly as we speak. So is the Gobi desert. The
American Southwest has been in a prolonged drought with no end in sight.
The arctic and subarctic permafrost is melting in large regions of the
north. The glaciers in Greenland and in Antarctica are showing
significant melting. I think we have less time that you think we do.

Could be that we do. It is possible we've already passed the point of
no return. Then what?

You really believe global warming is going to happen that suddenly?

I think global warming is already here. I live in the Midwest. The
seasons are already out of whack here, and have been for a number of
years. Spring has been at least four weeks early for the last ten years.
Flowers that I wouldn't normally see bloom until mid-March I've been
seeing in full bloom by no later than mid-February, and last year, some
were in bloom at the end of January - something I've never seen before.
Likewise, the winter has seemed to come earlier and be shorter than it
used to be. Our growing season is far longer than it was when I was
growing up. I grew tomatoes in the open air from mid-April until
mid-Novermber last year - the longest I've ever been able to grow them.
More than a month longer.

How can you be certain that your longer summers are anything beyond
variation within the norm? Is there any way to tell that this isn't
just a reversion to the mean?

We are even
less prepared for what will undoubtedly be a global loss of coastal
habitat.

I don't believe "we" are going to experience that.

"We" are already experiencing it. Coastal erosion is prevalant all
along the eastern seaboard, and it is even worse along the northern
coast of the Gulf of Mexico. The Maldives, in the Indian Ocean has
also seen continuous loss of their coastline. Those Islands average
about 8 feet above sea level but may some day relatively soon be
inundated.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/12/photogalleries/global_war
ming/photo5.html

Erosion? How does that correlate to global warming? What's the causality?

I for one don't see the point in risking so many lives just to
have the luxury of watching reruns of "Friends" on the television
24/7, or the luxury of 3 ton SUVs that get 10 mpg and get a soccer mom
from her home to her child's school 2 miles away.

These things may be contributory to an extent that actually makes a
difference, or they might not. Do you, or does anyone else, actually
have any math based proofs? So far all anyone has provided is a bunch
of arm waving.

The math is not as important as the chemistry and physics of the
situation. Just as it can be shown in the laboratory that
chlorofluorocarbons destroy ozone, it has been shown that an increase in
CO2, methane, and other greenhouse gases is warming the planet.

You didn't understand what I wrote as intended. I'm discussing applied
math, not pure math.

Here is a global map of methane emissions:

http://www.universetoday.com/am/publish/map_methane_emissions.html

Here is a chart of the rise in global temperatures:

http://yosemite.epa.gov/OAR/globalwarming.nsf/content/Climate.html

Here is an EPA report on Greenhouse gases and Global Warming Potential
Values

http://yosemite.epa.gov/OAR/globalwarming.nsf/UniqueKeyLookup/SHSU5BUM9T
/
$File/ghg_gwp.pdf


Chart 2, below, shows CO2 concentrations projected into the future for
various scenarios. All show an increase:

http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/projections-of-climate-
chang
e.html

You should look at this report carefully.

I will. But it all lacks long term baseline information. Usually nature
bumps along with changes coming in spurts. I agree the general trends
look a lot like we're headed into global warming, but OTOH nothing we
have is definitive in describing anything falling outside some long term
norms which we don't know as well as we wish to know.

They certainly won't happen at all if we buried our collective heads in
the sand and ignore that there is a problem.

If causality and solutions were clear cut then there would be no foot
dragging about taking countermeasures against global warming. In the
last 20 million years,what's the warmest the earth has been? Are we
apt to exceed that?

You keep completely ignoring the Milankovitch theory of climate change
which most climatologists agree is the controlling factor. If it is
correct, as I believe it to be, no amount of hand wringing or change in
human behavior is going to have any effect whatever. Yes, humanity is
selfish, and some believe we're evil, but does that have any actual
effect on the outcome? That has yet to be shown.



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