Re: Cold, hard facts defy the doomsayers

In article <dufqb2$jdh$1@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>,
alastair@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx (Alastair McDonald) wrote:


"George" <george@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:lZGOf.6954$oL.5582@xxxxxxxxxxxx

"Alastair McDonald" <alastair@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>
wrote in message news:duf7jm$g2u$3@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

"Jo Schaper" <joschapern4ospam@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:120m3atleaiev7b@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Al Zenner wrote:

H5N1 might make a significant difference in the future of the earth.
If we beat that then there's another even worse one just around the
corner.

All the scare about H5N1 bird flu doesn't seem rational to me. Why? It's
only been 50-60 years since people in the US became so urbanized that
children have to be taken to zoos to visit farm animals. I know I grew
up playing in a chicken yard, and most of my peers had at least one
rural parent or grandparent. At about age 9, I had some mysterious
illness-- something like a cross between regular flu and the mumps in
symptoms. Doctor had no clue what it was--I was in bed for two weeks,
dizzy with a fever, sore throat, and swollen neck glands. After two
weeks , I got better. Still don't know what it was, but got it a day or
two after a visit to grandma's. Most people in the US midwest test
positive for histoplasmosis--another bird and bat guano borne disease
which can be really nasty if you have a weak immune system, but can also
be quite mild-- it is an occupational hazard of cavers who frequent dry
bat colony caves. In short: people have been living around birds from
the beginning, even in close quarters, (ever had a parakeet or canary?)
and undoubtably there are bird-borne diseases which are not fun, but in
the big scheme, if humans as a species was totally vulnerable to those
diseases, we wouldn't be here.

If people want to worry about something, fine, and it's good that public
health people are tracking it, but I bet you there are H5N1 resistant
humans out there. There is a middle ground between living in squalor,
and having to have antibacterial soap for everything...I feel sorry for
those poor kids whose moms are so worried about protecting them from
germs that they never develop resistance to anything.

It is not HSN1 that we have to fear. It is the inevitable mutation
which will lead to a new flu that humans can pass it to humans. When
that happens it will enter the US and wipe out a third of the population,
just as the Black Death did in Europe.

Cheers, Alastair.

Only the U.S.?

No, even the US/

The US won't get bird flu. There are no infected swans flying from
France to the American continent. OTOH the UK will get bird flu,
but that will only affect poultry breeders.

However, it is highly unlikely that bird flu will go away. Eventually
somewhere in Eurasia, perhaps France, it will spread to humans. Then
that new French flu will go around the world killing humans.

Do you know how many people die of some kind of flu all the time?
Another variant of flu is hardly going to matter, is it?

Alan

http://www.veloceraptor.free-online.co.uk/enigma.html

http://veloceraptor.blogspot.com/

http://www.bushflash.com/pl_lo.html
.

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