Re: Solving Global Warming and this cool summer of 2004

From: Timothy Casey (ReplaceOhWithZeroNumbersOnly1195O_at_fieldcraft.biz)
Date: 07/04/04 

Date: Sun, 4 Jul 2004 18:10:37 +0930

"Lloyd Parker" <lparker@NOSPAMemory.edu> wrote in message
news:cbuouu$41i$1@puck.cc.emory.edu...
> In article <40e24fa9_1@news.iprimus.com.au>,
> "Timothy Casey" <ReplaceOhWithZeroNumbersOnly1195O@fieldcraft.biz>
wrote:
> >"Lloyd Parker" <lparker@NOSPAMemory.edu> wrote in message
> >news:cbscfv$8sd$1@puck.cc.emory.edu...
> >> In article <40e10c88_1@news.iprimus.com.au>,
> >> "Timothy Casey" <ReplaceOhWithZeroNumbersOnly1195O@fieldcraft.biz>
> >wrote:
> >> >The fact that we did not begin to measure the ozone hole before the
> >mid-20th
> >> >century does not mean that it was constant before that time. Has a
> >constancy
> >> >of atmospheric ozone ever been measured?
> >>
> >> We know what has caused the ozone depletion, and CFCs weren't around
> >before
> >> the 1930s or so.
> >
> >Isn't the basic premise of science that we know nothing for certain, and
> >that all conclusions are subject to additional data?
>
> No. In quantum mechanics, we know nothing for certain, but otherwise, we
> know a lot. Carbon atoms have 6 protons; the earth is several billion
years
> old; etc.

No. We don't know for sure. The only significance of these theories is that
they just happen to explain the greatest proportion of the available
facts...

>
> >
> >>
> >> >
> >> >There is geological evidence for the existence of ozone hole
variations
> >for
> >> >much longer than Homo Sapiens have been around. Oxygen and ozone are
in
> >> >equilibrium -
> >>
> >>
> >> Wrong. Small cyclic variations, but not of this magnitude.
> >
> >Variations in atmospheric oxygen/ozone in the earth's atmosphere were
> >neither seasonal nor small in the geological time scale.
>
>
> I was talking about the ozone layer.

Oxygen is part of the process that contributes to the ozone layer, and any
discussion of the ozone layer that leaves this out is only half of the
equation is it not?

[SNIP]

> >Irrespective, since then there is a wild variation in atmospheric oxygen
and
> >ergo, ozone...
>
> Not since humans walked the planet.

It is thought that the ozone layer disappeared for a couple of years from
1883 following the Krakatoa eruption, as well as other medium to large
eruptions.

Also, oxygen isotope analysis in ice core studies may lend some interesting
data to the issue because the oxygen content of the atmosphere undergoes
continual change throughout geological history - so why should it become
absolutely stable during the time humans have been on earth?

The point is that these variations are a feature of the earth's
history and natural causes must therefore must be ruled out before
speculating on Human causes.

http://www.epa.gov/ozone/science/volcano.html present a very convincing
explanation. I have to agree that you have a very good case here. However,
the big unanswered question is, if CFCs are produced in the Northern
Hemisphere, how is it that they have a vastly greater impact in the Southern
Hemisphere? - The implication of a CFC cause of the ozone problem is that
there is a net one-way atmospheric transport system for everything that
winds up in the stratosphere. How is it that this is one way, when the rest
of the atmosphere is cycled all over the globe? What other implications
could a one way atmospheric transport system have - and could they be more
serious?

Also, what mechanism is causing the ozone peak over the Southern Ocean? 

-- 
Timothy Casey GPEMC! >> 11950 is the number@fieldcraft.biz 2email
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