Ivan will be a cat-5

From: Mike1 (mike1_shoot.them.shoot.them.both_at_usfamily.net)
Date: 09/03/04 

Date: Fri, 03 Sep 2004 11:41:35 -0500

If meteorology were Texas Hold 'Em, I'm going all-in.

This entire season has shown a propensity for early-devoloping
low-lattitude mid-Atlantic storms. (How many times has it been already
that one can actually see the Cape Verde islands in a Navy close-up shot
of a storm which is beyond a mere "Invest"? Two? Three?)

Ivan is scheduled to track due west into the Caribbean at or below 15N
in a no-shear enviroment (with several models having it at least cat-4
by island-strike), and from there, given my long-range take on the
situation at that point, probably follow an Allen, David or Gilbert
track.

With Frances' outflow currently smothering all convection in the
Caribbean, and trades generally light, the water out ahead of Ivan will
have a week to soak up plenty of solar heating. As Frances lifts out,
the Caribbean will fall under the influence of easterly winds at all
levels, perfect for enabling a quick-moving Ivan to reach maximum SST
supportable intensity, which would generably be 160mph near the islands
to 180+ in the west end (provided, of course, it doesn't smack the
Greater Antilles).

   - - -

There. I've posted it. The weather gods may now have their way with me.

Track record: The weather gods, who must own condos on Daytona Beach,
happily shred all of my strong-hurricane-hits-US predictions, but
delight in killing thousands of people in Central and Latin America when
I predict cat-4/5s in the Caribbean. 

-- 
Reply to mike1@@@usfamily.net sans two @@, or your reply won't reach me.
Twin City Strategy Gamer:  http://groups.yahoo.com/group/TC_Strategy/
Drug smugglers and gun-runners are heroes of American capitalism.
  -- Jeffrey Quick

Relevant Pages

  • Caribbean faces years of rebuilding after hurricanes
    ... Caribbean faces years of rebuilding after hurricanes ... A Jamaican house that was destroyed by Hurricane Ivan. ... THREE major hurricanes in less than a month have scarred islands ... "The aid is coming in, but we need more people on the ground to help," ...
    (sci.geo.meteorology)
  • Re: Poor Bastards
    ... Cayman is a very special situation in the Caribbean. ... As one of the few islands still under U.K. control life is much more ... US tourists in Antigua blame police for brawl ... scuffling with police officers. ...
    (rec.travel.cruises)
  • Re: Please help us decide which island to visit
    ... Caribbean. ... locals and their culture. ... climate is similar to the Caribbean islands. ... Dominica is known as the Garden Island. ...
    (rec.travel.caribbean)
  • Re: Olive wants to go to the Caribbean !
    ... >How about 4 months to get from California to the Caribbean, ... Other friends with the same kind of boat left the Virgin Islands in ... Volume 98: San Carlos ... Puerto Refugio, Isla Angel La Guarda ...
    (rec.boats.cruising)
  • Re: Help me plan sabbatical in Caribbean?
    ... The Caribbean is a very big and widely varying place. ... Healthcare: Need to locate good healthcare facility in ... Islands in the Caribbean tend to be expensive because ... The Pacific Coast of Costa Rica - speak Spanish but is relatively ...
    (rec.travel.caribbean)