Re: Global Warming: 1993-2003 more storms bigger & nastier, most intense nine year storm period on record.
From: O18-C-O16 (hcf32_at_yahoo.no)
Date: 09/04/04
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Date: 4 Sep 2004 06:22:39 -0700
Steve Schulin <steve.schulin@nuclear.com> wrote in message news:<steve.schulin-9BDFEF.07362803092004@comcast.dca.giganews.com>...
> In article <46d68b2.0409022114.fbbf3c9@posting.google.com>,
> Gods_Fist@sbcglobal.net (Psalm 110) wrote:
>
> > Global Warming: 1993-2003 more storms bigger & nastier, most intense
> > nine year storm period on record.
> > http://www.bradenton.com/mld/bradenton/news/politics/9566448.htm
> >
> > Hurricane Frances part of record-setting period for storms
> >
> > BY SETH BORENSTEIN
> >
> > Knight Ridder Newspapers
> >
> > WASHINGTON - (KRT) - If it seems as if more monster hurricanes, such
> > as the soon-to-strike Frances, are swirling off the U.S. coast, you're
> > right. We're in the midst of a record-breaking decade of hurricane
> > activity.
> >
> > And it's likely to get worse, some experts predict.
> >
> > The past nine years, from 1995 through 2003, mark the busiest, most
> > intense nine-year storm period on record, based on the National
> > Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's hurricane season index. The
> > number takes into account how many storms develop, how strong their
> > winds are and how long they last.
> >
> > The so-called Accumulated Cyclone Energy index for the past nine years
> > has averaged 139.6. That's 50 percent higher than the 54-year average
> > of 93.2 from 1950 through 2003. The increase comes despite low indexes
> > for 1997 and 2002, both unusually mild years due to strong El Nino
> > weather events that suppress storm activity.
> >
> > That means we're experiencing more storms that are bigger and nastier.
> >
> > Since 1995, there's been an average of 13.3 named storms, 7.7
> > hurricanes and 3.6 major hurricanes (with winds of more than 111 mph)
> > each year. That's 50 percent higher than the 118-year average of 8.6
> > named storms, 5.1 hurricanes and two major hurricanes a year.
> >
> > "1995 through now, apart from the El Nino years, is more active than
> > anything in records," Hugh Willoughby, a senior scientist at the
> > International Hurricane Research Center in Miami, said as he packed
> > his computer in plastic to protect it from Hurricane Frances. "It
> > looks like there's a trend of increasing hurricanes."
> >
> > This year is shaping up to be one of the worst.
> >
> > As of Sept. 1, this season had had eight named storms, four of which
> > became hurricanes and two of which (including Frances) are major
> > hurricanes. And historically, most hurricanes form after Sept. 1.
> >
> > "August has never seen eight named storms before," said atmospheric
> > scientist Chris Velden, of the University of Wisconsin in Madison.
> > "We're on a record pace."
> >
> > The scientist who pioneered hurricane-season forecasting, William Gray
> > of Colorado State University in Fort Collins, forecast last month that
> > 2004 would see 13 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major
> > hurricanes. He'll update those predicted numbers, probably increasing
> > them, on Friday, a university spokesman said.
>
> Today's Washington Post mentions a study which examined evidence from
> the last several centuries in Bermuda, Jamaica and Puerto Rico. The
> researchers found that major storms were nearly three times as frequent
> during the cool period called the "Little Ice Age" in the 1700s than in
> the much warmer last half of the 20th century. Another study, looking at
> lake sediments, found evidence of 12 Category 4 or 5 hurricanes having
> touched one Florida site in the last 7,000 years. None occurred in the
> first half of that period, which was warmer than the second half.
>
> The Post article also cites the same Dr. Gray:
>
> "'I think we should view this just as a natural statistical smoothing
> out of the records,' said William M. Gray, of Colorado State University,
> whose expertise includes forecasting seasonal hurricane activity.
> History suggests the East Coast is overdue for several major storms, he
> thinks. Gray does not believe there is evidence of global warming caused
> by human activity. He sees in Florida's impending disaster only the play
> of chance. Between 1966 and 2003, the Florida peninsula was struck by
> only one hurricane of Category 3, 4 or 5 intensity: Hurricane Andrew, in
> 1992. (On the conventional scale, that means a hurricane with wind
> speeds 111 mph or greater.) Between 1926 and 1965, however, the
> peninsula was hit by 14 such storms, he said. 'I've been saying this
> luck just can't go on,' Gray said. 'Florida people, rather than feeling
> they are unlucky for these two hits in the last three weeks, should
> realize how lucky they have been.' In general, the number of major
> hurricanes -- those Category 3 or higher -- that reached land in recent
> years is way below average, he said. Since 1995, there have been 35 in
> the Atlantic basin, and only five have hit land (if Frances is
> included). In the 20th century, there were 218, and 73 came ashore -- a
> far higher proportion, he said."
>
> A mathematical model used by Knutson and Robert E. Tuleya, formerly of
> NOAA and now of Old Dominion University in Norfolk, predicts a 6 percent
> rise in hurricane intensity over the next 80 years. "One may not expect
> to see a 'signal' for some time to come," Tuleya said yesterday. He
> added, "It's a fact that nobody so far has been able to show -- from the
> observed storms -- a tendency to have more intense storms."
>
> [Source: David Brown (Washington Post staff writer), "2 Storms In
> Florida Not Seen As Trend; Experts Don't Fault Global Warming", The
> Washington Post, September 3, 2004, p. A3]
>
Found this study interesting, thus searched the net for other
papers/news articles written By Mr. Gray.
William M. Gray climatology anno 1996-97:
Strong Thermohaline Weak Thermohaline
1.North Atlantic SST positive negative
2.Azores High Pressure weaker stronger
3.Atlantic Trade wind weaker stronger
4.Sahel rainfall wetter drier
5.Atl. major hurricanes higher lower
6.El Niņo frequency/strength lower higher
7.Global temperatures cooling warming
Table 1, http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/acvp/gray.htm
End quote
Take a close look at point 7, it suggest that the Little Ice Age could
have been caused by a strong thermohaline. But that does not fit since
the Little Ice Age cooled Europe and had little impact on global
temperatures.
A clue on how Gray might be able save his theories from the deadly
inconsistency above is given by the salinity anomalies of 1969 and
1994. In 1968 increased fresh water/sea ice export trough the farm
strait traveled all the way along the east coast of Grenland into the
labrador sea and mixed with the northern part of the gulf stream from
1970 and forward. 1971 to 1994 had less atlantic Hurricanes. The 1994
salinity anomaly stayed north of Iceland were it might well have
slowed down the eastern most part of the conveyor bringing heat to
Europe, and from 1995 and forward Atlantic hurricane activity
increased.
Gray on global warming:
Cut from http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/sci_tech/2000/climate_change/1023334.stm
"There is a negative or complementary nature to human-induced
greenhouse gas increases in comparison with the dominant natural
greenhouse gas of water vapour and its cloud derivatives.
It has been assumed by the human-induced global warming advocates that
as anthropogenic greenhouse gases increase that water vapour and
upper-level cloudiness will also rise and lead to accelerated warming
- a positive feedback loop.
It is not the human-induced greenhouse gases themselves which cause
significant warming but the assumed extra water vapour and cloudiness
that some scientists hypothesise.
Negative feedback
The global general circulation models which simulate significant
amounts of human-induced warming are incorrectly structured to give
this positive feedback loop.
Their internal model assumptions are thus not realistic."
End quote.
Seems like Gray supports the Lindzen Iris hypothesis one way or
another. The rest of the supposed anthropogenic warming he tries to
wash away(or wash his hands) with the bad luck, natural cycles made
human made greenhouse gases more significant than they should have
been, argument. Cannot prove him wrong, but that does not help much,
suppose that when the feedback first have ignited, only reducing
greenhouse gases or dimming the sun could slow down and reverse the
current global warming trend.
William M. Gray is a professor working on seasonal hurricane
predictions and a greenhouse skeptic among other things. Although a
legend on his field and useful as the devils advocate/ice bucket on
global warming hype, I think it would be wise not to accept his views
on climate change as the 'truth', cutting edge or as the most updated.
> > Right now all the conditions are ripe for bigger and more frequent
> > hurricanes, said Roger Pielke Sr., an atmospheric scientist at
> > Colorado State.
> >
> > Key ingredients for forming hurricanes are atmospheric disturbances -
> > rainstorms that often chug off Africa's Cape Verde and grow as they
> > move west over the Atlantic - and the lack of upper-level winds that
> > cut off storm tops, Pielke said. Those conditions are still favorable
> > for more storms.
> >
> > A major factor that allows hurricanes to grow bigger and stronger -
> > such as Frances - is warm water.
> >
> > "The Atlantic is a degree warmer than average this year. That may be a
> > part of what's causing what's going on," said Willoughby, who used to
> > direct the federal government's Hurricane Research Division.
> >
> > And one weather condition that steers hurricanes - the Bermuda
> > high-pressure ridge - is in a position that will direct storms into
> > the U.S. mainland, not away as it has in past years, Pielke said.
> >
> > Just why it's been so busy lately is widely debated. Some experts
> > point to global warming, and others say it's just part of natural
> > cycles.
> >
> > Hurricanes go through multi-decade cycles of many storms and few
> > storms, Gray said in his most recent forecast. In the 1950s and 1960s,
> > there were a lot of storms, then few from 1970 to 1994. Gray theorizes
> > that it's based on changes of temperature and salinity in the ocean on
> > a massive scale that then changes atmospheric conditions.
> >
> > The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has computer
> > models that predict that as the world warms, hurricanes will get
> > stronger, but the models are geared more toward the future.
> >
> > Willoughby sees what's happening as a part of a normal cycle that
> > could be juiced by warmer water.
> >
> > While trends tend to be long-term, sometimes conditions change
> > abruptly and few storms form, Pielke and Velden said.
- Next message: Phred: "Phoebe [Was: First cyclone in Southern Hemisphere]"
- Previous message: Louis BREDA: "TROPICAL WEATHER - 04/09/2004 09:56z - Current Warning Digest"
- In reply to: Steve Schulin: "Re: Global Warming: 1993-2003 more storms bigger & nastier, most intense nine year storm period on record."
- Next in thread: Roger Coppock: "Re: Global Warming: 1993-2003 more storms bigger & nastier, most intense nine year storm period on record."
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