Hurricane Ivan: Houston; September 12th, 2004; Force 5.

From: Psalm 110 (Gods_Fist_at_sbcglobal.net)
Date: 09/09/04 

Date: 8 Sep 2004 21:27:35 -0700

On Wed, 08 Sep 2004 20:36:11 -0500, Mike1
<mike1_shoot.them.shoot.them.both@usfamily.net> twrote

>
> >> It starts out from the fact recorded by satellite that Ivan began just
> >> southwards of FRANCEs, therefore it will most likely 95%+ probability
> >> travel south of FRANCEs track.
>
>
> Eh, you know that from a close examination of historical tracks?
>
> - - -
>
> The actual is probably closer to 60%.

Coriolis force is 100% constant. Origin location is variable, but
initial impetus is highly constrained.

History is erased rapidly from weather systems. If there is some
correspondences from year to year it is due to gross physical
features, like continents and seafloors.

However, RECENT weather affect that following behind.

In this animation you can see the present storm, IVAN, and the outlier
effects of the previous storm FRANCEs. They are both quite visibly
interacting at the time of this animation. The images are updated
every 30 minutes, so there is no historical archives to go back and
review these -- by tomorrow IVAN will be beyond interaction with
lingering FRANCEs air currents, so it will be useless to even click
the links, but at 9:19 pm PST USA one can still see that one storm
impacts the path of the next.

Using statistics from former years may give you no better than 60%
predictive power, but viewing the two-storm-complex dynamic can give
the 95% accuracy I claimed and still stand by.

Hurricane Houston, September 12th, force five.

At 6:45 PST USA (GMT+8)
The remainder of the eye of FRANCEs was still discernable entering
Pennsylvania. In this it lost counter-clockwise momentum and failed to
curve out through Virginia as I had anticipated.

This is the link to a 13 frame satellite animation loop updated every
30 minutes, so the one you view will be different from the
instantaneous one I am currently looking at.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

I am linking to infrared because it is dark over IVAN right now. The
storm was grounded on the coast of South America, which has slowed its
forward progress by 25%. With 1/3rd of the storm over land it was
unbalanced and the oceanic portions exert uneven pressure keeping it
on the shoreline. The Shore curves abruptly to the west, and the storm
has now been freed of the shoreline. Like "english" (spin) on a pool
ball of a bank shot, the storm has now changed to a south Cuba
ballistic. A similar shore hugging slide along Cuba is anticipated.

First it will collide directly with Jamaica. The eye will pass
directly over the island, which may alter the trajectory bassed on
eye-wall interactions with Jamaican mountain topography. A 5 degrees
plus or minus skew on direction will be additive to interactive
pressures against the Cuban land mass. It can cut acroos Cuba anywhere
from midpoint to slip through the gap between Cuba and Yucatan.

It will be on top of Jamaica at noon Thursday local time.
http://www.mapmart.com/scripts/hsrun.exe/Single/MapMart_New/MapXtreme.htx;start=HS_Handler

By the time it hits Jamaica it will be beyond the known laws of
physics for it to somehow manage to strike Florida's East coast, so
Ian's initial prediction will be cancelled. Biloxi and Houston are
still in the running. If it's right shoulder gets significantly hooked
on Dominican Republic/Haiti there is still a chance of a sharp veer
across Cuba to south Florida, but the landmass will have drained it of
significant energy so that it will be largely spent by impact.

Meanwhile, here is a link to an animation showing the NEXT forming
hurricane behind IVAN. It has not congealed yet, but you can see the
cyclonic sees taking shape already. It is forming in the same womb as
IVAN and would be expected to have a closely parallel track.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html

This 85 GHz loop excells for sheer tropical coloration on the data. It
shows a day of wind currents over the gulf which have an impact to
some extent on IVAN's speed and direction.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/sst-pac-loop.html

This is an eight-day loop of sea surface temperatures, which gives
some clues of the major currents activated ny FRANCEs' partial
interaction with the northeast gulf.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/sst-pac-loop.html

You will notice major fuel for intensification over the entire gulf.
Temperatures more than sufficient to replenish this storm to its
maximum potential

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