Two More Months of Hurricane Season -- October could send even more woes our way
From: Psalm 110 (Gods_Fist_at_sbcglobal.net)
Date: 09/26/04
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Date: 26 Sep 2004 16:02:11 -0700
http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/state/9762707.htm
Posted on Sun, Sep. 26, 2004
October could send even more woes our way
Four hurricanes down -- but two months to go. Is it possible we could
be seeing more? Don't bet against it.
By DAVID OVALLE AND ANDRES VIGLUCCI
Florida's incredible 2004 hurricane season -- four hurricane hits,
three of them major storms -- is already assured of a starring place
in the record books.
Saturday marked the first time any state has been struck by four
hurricanes in one season since Texas earned the dubious honor in 1886.
It was also the first time since record-keeping began in 1851 that
Florida has been hit by four hurricanes in one year.
And it ain't over yet, folks. Not even close.
Two full months remain in the season before its Nov. 30 close.
Next up? October, which historically has been a busy month for
hurricanes. And, yes, they've been known to make landfall in South
Florida.
Unlike Charley, Frances, Ivan and Jeanne -- all born in the eastern
Atlantic Ocean -- October storms are more likely to surge out of the
northwest Caribbean and rake across South Florida from the opposite
direction, slipping in through the back door, so to speak.
Now pay attention to this next bit.
Because we sit closer to where the October storms form, Miami-Dade and
Broward counties and the Florida Keys have a better chance of getting
hit than in September, said Jim Lushine, a severe-weather expert with
the National Weather Service's Miami office.
There's one small consolation: October storms tend to be weaker than
September hurricanes.
LONG WAY TO GO
But don't relax just yet. Even some of those lower-category storms can
wreak plenty of havoc.
''There have been several years in which we've had the September
storms, with the strong winds, and the October storms come and produce
the rainfall,'' Lushine said. ``It's kind of a double whammy, one-two
uppercut type of thing.''
Remember Hurricane Irene in October 1999? It formed south of Cuba and
churned over the Keys and South Florida, killing at least five people
and causing major flooding.
And that was just a Category 1 storm.
Nothing rules out a big one later in the season, forecasters say.
''The stronger storms usually hit South Florida in September, while
the weaker ones, but still significant, hit in October,'' said Eric
Blake, a meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center. ``However
-- a big however -- you can still get very powerful Category 3
hurricanes coming out of the Northwest Caribbean.''
The forecasters aren't trying to scare people. They just don't want
anyone to think that because Florida has been hit four times this
season doesn't mean it can't be struck again.
''We've already gone past our quota when it comes to storms -- but
there is no reason to think we wouldn't have one in October,'' Lushine
said. And he was only half-joking.
To be sure, this season has made history -- agonizing and tiresome
history.
RECORD-SETTER
Since hurricane data began to be compiled in 1851, Florida has borne
multiple hurricane hits in a single year several times, but rarely in
such rapid succession -- and, until this year, never four times.
There's more.
On Saturday, when Hurricane Jeanne increased in intensity, it marked
the sixth major hurricane -- defined as a Category 3 or higher on the
Saffir-Simpson scale, with winds between 111 to 130 mph -- to develop
in the Atlantic basin this year. (Alex and Karl did not make landfall
as hurricanes.)
That has happened only five times since 1851 -- most recently in 1996,
when Florida went unscathed.
The only thing that saved Florida from getting hit by four majors this
year is the fact that Frances de-intensified to a Category 2 storm
just before coming ashore in Martin County. Unfortunately, Jeanne did
the opposite, strengthening to a far-more dangerous Category 3 storm
as it bore down on the same area.
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center say they're not surprised
by all the activity.
As Floridians have now learned full well, experts expect busier
hurricane seasons for years to come after a lull of several decades.
The window for the stronger September hurricanes has now pretty much
closed, Lushine said.
As the summer winds down, high-altitude crosswinds increase in the
distant Atlantic, typically shearing off the tops off the cloud
formations that glue hurricanes together.
Now say hello to October.
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