The beginning of the end, or storm in a teacup?

From: Psalm 110 (Gods_Fist_at_sbcglobal.net)
Date: 10/04/04 

Date: 4 Oct 2004 00:11:57 -0700

http://groups.google.com/groups?num=100&hl=en&lr=&ie=UTF-8&safe=off&edition=us&q=alt.religion.unification&btnG=Search

The beginning of the end, or storm in a teacup?
October 2, 2004

Faster ocean currents - not global warming - could be behind the
storms, floods and fires, writes Melissa Fyfe.

A record-breaking spate of hurricanes hitting Florida, a string of
deadly typhoons in Japan, Arctic ice melting, Antarctic glaciers
moving, heatwaves, floods - the world has, it seems, gone mad.

When nature unleashes her temper, we want to know why. But the answer,
as always, is not clear-cut. The planet moves in mysterious ways.

Blaming global warming for polar ice melting is one thing, but the
world's climate scientists will not connect it to the recent
hurricanes that whipped the Caribbean with unprecedented frequency.

There are simply too many forces at play and not enough long-term
data, they say.

But a key factor, scientists believe, was the build-up of warm water
in the Atlantic in the past year, about five degrees higher than
recent averages.

US meteorologists have said the ocean conveyor belt that ferries warm
water around the globe is probably to blame for the spate of
hurricanes.

Scientists have discovered that every two or three decades this
massive ocean current picks up speed, warming water in the tropics.
This in turn changes atmospheric conditions around Africa, where many
major storms begin.
Advertisement Advertisement

Climatologist Stephen Schneider, of Stanford University, said five
factors controlled the magnitude and frequency of tropical cyclones.
They included the thickness of the atmosphere, how strong winds were
at the top of a storm and the temperature of the upper 200 metres of
the ocean.

"We have no idea how global warming is going to affect four out of
five of these factors, but we are sure it is going to increase ocean
temperatures," he said.

"The warmer the water, the more the energy."

In the future, this could be true of tropical cyclones in Australia's
north, Professor Schneider said. "Maybe you won't have stronger storms
every year, but when you do get a doozy, it is going to be a big one."

This year has been one of extreme weather, and scientists -
particularly climate scientists, atmospheric chemists and
oceanographers - are warning that the kind of extreme weather that
happened once in 100 years could soon take place every 20 years.

Last month, British scientist Mike Pilling, a professor of physical
chemistry at Leeds University, said millions of people could die due
to extreme weather events caused by climate change.

Professor Pilling cited the European heatwave and increased
atmospheric pollution that killed 35,000 in Europe in 2003. Scientists
have found global warming has also pushed up temperatures at night,
providing no relief during heatwaves.

Last year, the Red Cross estimated that up to 700 natural disasters
took 50,000 lives, almost five times as many as 2002. In 2003, the
United Nations reported that climate-related impacts cost the world
$US602 billion ($A83 billion) 10 per cent more than in 2002.

The insurance business is one of the most vocal supporters for action
on climate change. Australia's biggest insurance group, IAG, has done
the figures on the cost of climate-related disasters - such as the
Sydney hailstorm of 1999 that caused $1.7 billion damage in minutes -
and is calling for action.

Its modelling suggests that small changes to ocean temperature could
create a "megastorm" that would dwarf the Sydney hailstorm.

"Global warming leads to increased severe weather-related events,"
IAG's chief actuary, Tony Coleman, said. "It manifests itself with
more damage to buildings and cars, which leads to more claims, which
is why the insurance industry is concerned."

While conditions here might not be as spectacular as hurricanes and
typhoons, Australia is still experiencing some of its own severe
weather. Severe rainfall deficiencies still persist on Australia's
east coast from Proserpine in Queensland to Bega in southern NSW. And
it's been unusually warm: last month NSW experienced record high
temperatures for September.

Neil Plummer, acting superintendent of the Bureau of Meteorology's
National Climate Centre, said there have been trends towards an El
Nino event for the past few months, but it is too early to call.
Nevertheless, it looks like the next three months will be warmer and
drier than average in parts of eastern Australia.

THE WEATHER WITH YOU

· So far this year four hurricanes have hit Florida, the most since
records began in 1851. The storms have caused damage worth an
estimated $US12.2 billion ($A17 billion) including the house below,
destroyed by hurricane Charley.

· This week's typhoon Meari left 20 people dead in Japan. Meari was
the season's 21st typhoon in the Pacific and a record eighth to hit
Japan.

· Antarctica's glaciers are accelerating their march towards the sea.
A 3200-square-kilometre section of the Larson B iceshelf broke off
over a month in 2002. The collapse was captured in these satellite
images, right.

· Australia is still experiencing "severe rainfall deficiencies" on
the east coast.

· 2004 has seen major fires in France, California and Greece and
severe floods in Bangladesh, Nepal and India.

Relevant Pages

  • Re: Wheres Cheney
    ... I could probably find quotes like that by "scientists" at the fringe ... > more likely to make a connection between weather events and the climate. ... > ocean temperatures and hurricanes, ... > scientists have signed the Oregon Petition against the Kyoto Protocol ...
    (rec.music.makers.percussion)
  • Global warming update
    ... WASHINGTON - Global warming isn't to blame for the recent ... jump in hurricanes in the Atlantic, concludes a study by a prominent ... The biggest storms - those with winds of more than 110 mph - would ... Some other scientists criticized his computer model. ...
    (rec.music.artists.springsteen)
  • Scientists disagree on whether warming means more hurricanes -- It seems similarly logical t
    ... Scientists disagree on whether warming means more hurricanes ... Other factors may work against bigger, more frequent storms ... other factors that may work against stronger, more frequent storms. ...
    (uk.politics.misc)
  • Re: Bad News for Global Warming Nuts
    ... of which 15 became hurricanes. ... This year's three named storms may pale in comparison to the record nine ... Your picture of your political true believers obviously shows a ... the world and the world's scientists view you as a ...
    (soc.retirement)
  • Re: OT: Trent Lotts home destroyed by Hurricane Katrina
    ... > location -- exacerbated by global warming... ... Because hurricanes form over warm ocean water, ... which tends to tear storms apart before they turn into hurricanes. ... The federal outlay on climate research is now $4.2 billion per year, ...
    (rec.arts.theatre.musicals)