Re: where would I find the weather history for given region?
From: Keith Darlington (beulah_at_owl-online.de)
Date: 10/12/04
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Date: Tue, 12 Oct 2004 17:01:17 +0100
Ian,
an interesting challenge you've got there. I'm a long-ranger, so I can't
let this opportunity go by. I like a challenge. To all sceptics and
non-believers, I understand your viewpoint, you don't need to post it,
it's as good as already said. Instead, just read Ian's expected
weather.
On Saturday, 25th February 2006 there's a huge trough in the 500mb top.
stretching N/S down the centre of the USA. It reaches quite a way down
to the south. Near to the Californian coastline, there's a ridge. This
configuration of contours means that any surface pressure-centre in
your area will be driven eastwards from the Pacific to the 'North
Californian/Oregon' coast and then south-eastwards towards Arizona.
In other words, the upper winds are generally from the north-west. It's
helpful to know in which direction everything is moving.
Now let's look at the surface. There's an anticyclone just west of
California waiting to move into the mainland. Its isobars run up the
Californian coast as far as San Francisco before turning westwards into
the Pacific. Another high pressure area is expected near the states
of Idaho/Wyoming/Utah. The determining feature for your weather though
is the low pressure near west Arizona. It's not a big thing but it
has a trough stretching north-westwards up the border with with
Nevada. There could be a cold front up the centre of the trough, moving
towards the west or south-west, which has cold easterly winds coming
in behind it.
Now as far as I can see, without local knowledge of your weather, I would
think that some showers would be possible from the low pressure itself.
During the day, the low pressure moves away south-eastwards, so we would
generally expect an improvement. But we shouldn't forget that the
cold-front-trough will swing a little towards the west before it fades.
This means that your area could have a repeat of showers as the day
progresses. So as far as I can see, there is a threat of showers for
most of the day.
On Sunday 26th February 2006 the weather looks much better. The
anticyclone over the Pacific is moving into the mainland to join up with
the high pressure over the states of Idaho/Wyoming/Utah, and the low
pressure which was over west Arizona should have drifted further south
or south-east.. Winds should be light from the north-west or north-east,
and showers should have cleared away.
In summary - the first day is questionable for outdoors, the second day
is better suited.
Ian, this forecast has been given in some detail because the experimental
forecasting system permits such information. I would advise you,
however, to get an official forecast from your local weather bureau
nearer the time.
Whatever the weather - congratulations and happy times on the 25th.
Cheers, Keith
>
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