Re: OCTOBER SETS 125-YEAR GLOBAL LAND TEMPERATURE HIGH!!

From: Bama Brian (bamaNOTbrian_at_mindspring.com)
Date: 11/12/04 

Date: Fri, 12 Nov 2004 20:52:04 GMT

Roger Coppock wrote:
> These globally averaged temperature data come from NASA:
> http://www.giss.nasa.gov/data/update/gistemp/GLB.Ts.txt
> They represent the results of tens of millions of readings
> taken at thousands of stations covering all the lands of the
> Earth over the last 125 years. Yes, the data are corrected
> for the urban heat island effect. Unlike other weather and
> climate data currently coming from the United States, no
> government censors added 'spin' to this report.
>
> The Mean October temperature over the last 125 years is 14.016 C.
> The Variance is 0.07070.
> The Standard Deviation is 0.2659.
>
> Rxy 0.620774 Rxy^2 0.385361
> TEMP = 13.727738 + (0.004574 * (YEAR-1879))
> Degrees of Freedom = 123 F = 77.117423
> Confidence of nonzero correlation = approximately
> 0.9999999999999 (13 nines)
> The month of October in the year 2004,
> is linearly projected to be 14.300,
> yet it was 14.73. <-- 1.6 SIGMA above linear projection!
> The sum of the residuals is 20.742638
>
> Exponential least squares fit:
> TEMP = 13.728503 * e^(.0003260 * (YEAR-1879))
> The sum of the residuals is 20.727734
>
> Rank of the months of October
> Year Temp C Anomaly Z score
> 2004 14.73 0.714 2.69 <--
> 2003 14.70 0.684 2.57
> 2002 14.60 0.584 2.20
> 1995 14.59 0.574 2.16
> 1998 14.55 0.534 2.01
> 1990 14.53 0.514 1.93
> 2001 14.48 0.464 1.75
> 1988 14.45 0.434 1.63
> 1938 14.41 0.394 1.48
> 1999 14.41 0.394 1.48
> 1994 14.40 0.384 1.44
> 1997 14.37 0.354 1.33
> 1943 14.35 0.334 1.26
> MEAN 14.016 0.000 0.00
> 1976 13.61 -0.406 -1.53
> 1880 13.60 -0.416 -1.56
> 1892 13.60 -0.416 -1.56
> 1908 13.60 -0.416 -1.56
> 1884 13.59 -0.426 -1.60
> 1897 13.59 -0.426 -1.60
> 1898 13.57 -0.446 -1.68
> 1904 13.57 -0.446 -1.68
> 1917 13.57 -0.446 -1.68
> 1912 13.53 -0.486 -1.83
> 1903 13.50 -0.516 -1.94
> 1886 13.35 -0.666 -2.50
> 1891 13.35 -0.666 -2.50
>
> The most recent 143 continuous months, or 11 years and 11 months,
> on this GLB.Ts.txt data set are all above the 1951-1980
> data set norm of 14 C.
> There are 1498 months of data on this data set:
> -- 712 of them are at or above the norm.
> -- 786 of them are below the norm.
> This run of 143 months above the norm is the result of a warming world.
> It is too large to occur by chance at any reasonable level of confidence.
> A major volcano eruption or meteor impact could stop this warming trend
> for a couple of years, otherwise expect it to continue.

Roger, where do the missing 80-odd years fall into that table? 

-- 
Cheers,
Bama Brian
Libertarian

Relevant Pages

  • Re: January was WARMEST in the 126-year land record!
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  • Re: January was WARMEST in the 126-year land record!
    ... > Roger Coppock wrote: ... >>They represent the results of tens of millions of readings ... >>data set norm of 14 C. ... >>impact could stop this warming trend for a couple of years, ...
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