June 2005 30-Day Forecast

JUNE 2005 30-DAY OUTLOOK
500 PM EDT Tue. May 31, 2005
Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical
data, and Canonical Correlation analysis, observed cases from past such
months and new data from 1895-2000 were used in this forecast.
Surface and subsurface water temperatures increased substantially in
the eastern equatorial Pacific during the past month, associated with
the arrival of the downwelling phase of a strong oceanic Kelvin wave.
Sea surface temperature anomalies increased by more than 2°C in the
extreme eastern equatorial Pacific during April, and by the end of the
month, positive equatorial sea surface temperature anomalies of greater
than +0.5°C were observed in most areas from Indonesia eastward to the
South American coast. The increase in sea surface temperature anomalies
in the eastern equatorial Pacific during April was reflected by an
increase in the sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3 and Niño 1+2
regions. Latest guidance suggest that near neutral conditions will
prevail during the Northern Hemisphere summer. Sea surface temperatures
off the East coast are currently averaging below normal and may
influence coastal region.
NAO has been negative and is forecast to tend towards neutral into the
mid-month period. The PNA has been positive and is likely to tend
towards neutral as well. Models are in generally in good agreement in
the longwave pattern across North America. A trough is forecast in the
Gulf of Alaska and near or along the West coast, a ridge will be across
central North America. A trough is expected in the East.
Above normal temperatures are forecast across much of the nation with
the exception to the Northwest and the Southeast where temperatures
will be near normal. The probability of above normal temperatures 56
percent except in the Northeast where the probability increases to 58
percent. The remainder of the nation is likely to average near normal
with no significant deviation from normal climatology.
Above normal precipitation is forecast across the Northwest and the
northern Rockies. The probability of above normal precipitation in
this region is 57 percent. Below normal precipitation is forecast
across the Southeast where rainfall is expected to be convective
activity. The probability of below normal precipitation in this region
is 56 percent. The remainder of the nation is expected to average
Jim G. Munley, jr.,
http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx/

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