Intense Hurricanes Increasing
I'm curious what you all think of the Webster/Curry/Holland/Chang
study on the increase in cat 4/5 hurricanes in the past 35 years.
I don't think you can "blame" this increase on sampling problems,
as the satellite signature of such storms is pretty clear. And
even in 1970 the satellite coverage was adequate -- I'm guessing
that's why they picked that year as the start.
I'm always wondering, as I read these kinds of studies that
focus on SSTs -- is there a mechanism by which atmospheric
shear varies on decadal scales? I'm guessing no, but it seems
like these studies intrinsically assume that the shear in each
decade doesn't vary. Is this something that anyone has looked
at? I suppose you could look at the Key West radiosonde (for
example) to check it.
Most of the quotes re: they newest study from Atmos. Sci. types
whose names I recognize seem pretty supportive of the
study. I wonder what Patrick Michaels has to say about it? :)
Scott
.
