Re: What happened to the forecast stall?

I think we tend to overlook forward momentum and intertia which in a
northward moving system, carry a HUGE weight in simple physics owing to
earth's rotation. It was just more than enough to carry the system into the
mid-lattitude westerlies brought by a well-forecast upper trough moving
across the nation's mid section.

We can all agree that this scenario was a good thing. Sure the Sox and
Yankees might be rained out tonight, but spreading the "wealth" over the
eastern half of the country versus 20-25" of certain devistation in the
Arklatex is a welcomed sigh of relight.



<Russell.Martin@xxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:1127754425.123257.179640@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
> Scott wrote:
>> I didn't really pay attention this week to Rita -- lots
>> of things going on closer to home -- but I do recall
>> dire predictions of a stall over AR and persistent
>> rain and flooding.
>>
>> How come that didn't happen?
>>
>> scott
>
> The forecast was wrong. ;-) Actually Rita has not been moving
> particularly quickly, but I suppose one could argue it didn't
> exactly "stall" either. However, I recall reading at least
> one of the HNC discussions last week which said, in essence,
> that they were not certain about exactly how influences in
> the extended range would play out (and IIRC the model
> solutions were divergent) so they were forecasting slow
> motion until things became more clear.
>
> Cheers,
> Russell
>


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