November 2005 30-Day Forecast
- From: "james.munley@xxxxxxxxxxx" <james.munley@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 31 Oct 2005 14:20:30 -0800
NOVEMBER 2005 30-DAY OUTLOOK
400 PM EDT Mon. October 31, 2005
Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical
data, and Canonical Correlation analysis, the new CFS along with
observed cases from past such months and also data from 1895-2000 were
used in this forecast.
Oceanic and atmospheric indicators across the Equatorial Pacific
continue to remain near normal. The indicators are forecast to remain
near normal through the end of the year.
NAO is currently in a negative phase forecast to remain generally near
normal or below after a brief positive phase. The PNA is negative and
is forecast to remain negative. The upper pattern is forecast to
consist of a ridge in Siberia, a trough will be off the West coast of
North America that may push inland. A ridge will spread eastward from
the Southwest and into the south-central states. Another trough is
forecast acros eastern Canada and the Northeast.
Below normal temperatures are forecast in the Northwest east across the
northern Rockies. The probability of below normal temperatures in this
region is 56 percent. Above normal temperatures are forecast across the
Southwest eastward across the southern Plains. The probability of above
normal temperatures across this region is 58 percent. Another area of
below normal temperatures is forecast across New York, northern and
central New England. The probability of below normal temperatures in
this area is 55 percent. The remainder of the nation is likely to
average near normal with no significant deviation from normal
climatology.
Above normal precipitation is forecast across is expected across the
Northwest into western Montana. The probability of above normal
precipitation in this region is 57 percent. Below normal precipitation
is forecast in the Southwest eastward through the central gulf coast
states. The probability of below normal precipitation in this region is
56 percent. Another area of above normal precipitation is expected
across the northern Great Lakes eastward across northern New England.
The probability of above normal precipitation in this area is 56
percent. The remainder of the nation is expected to average near normal
with no significant deviation from normal climatology.
Jim G. Munley, jr.,
http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx/
.
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