Verification of the Farmer's Almanac

Once again I have put together a simple verification of last year's
forecast from the 2005 Old Farmer's Almanac. The very poor results
were very similar to previous years. See:

http://ggweather.com/farmers/2005/index.htm

ABSTRACT
The latest Old Farmer's Almanac is out with its usual boast of being
80% correct. But are they really that good? From what I have seen in
past years their accuracy is much, much worse than advertised! How
about this year?

This study found that the national regional forecast for Winter had
both the temperature and precipitation correct only about 13% of the
time and Summer forecast was correct just 6% of the time.

The California forecasts for temperature were right only 13% of the
time and the precipitation was correct 27% of the time.


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Jan Null
Certified Consulting Meteorologist
Golden Gate Weather Services
Phone: (510) 657-2246
Email: jnull@xxxxxxxxxxxxx
Webpage: http://ggweather.com
"Climate is what you expect,
Weather is what you get". ~ R. Heinlein
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