Experimental Wind Speed Probability Re: NHC TC Intensity Forecasts

Richard Dixon [who gets a CC:] wrote:
> I wonder if anyone was able to help - does anybody happen to know if the
> the Tropical Cyclone intensity probability forecasts ( e.g.
> http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/graphics/AT18/15.AL1805I.GIF ) are
> available in some form of text format?

They *were* available in text on your WMO, FOS and AWIPS live feeds.
Whether they are still archived anywhere publicly is an open question.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/climate/reviews/060105pns.txt
NEW AND EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCTS THAT WILL BE ISSUED ALONG WITH THE
STANDARD ADVISORY PACKAGE ARE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SURFACE WIND
SPEED PROBABILITIES. THESE PRODUCTS...AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL AND
TEXT FORM...PROVIDE PROBABILITIES OF SURFACE WIND SPEEDS OF
TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE AT VARIOUS LOCATIONS. THE WIND
SPEED PROBABILITY TEXT PRODUCTS CAN BE FOUND UNDER WMO HEADERS
FONT11-FONT15 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS HEADERS MIAPWSAT1-MIAPWSAT5.

e.g.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAPWSAT3.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT4+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/pub/forecasts/prob/MIAPWSAT4

But they don't appear to have the experimental PWSAT1..5 in the NHC public
archive.
As I read the Google results, anyone that has a cache of Emily or Katrina
PWSAT1..5's has them off-line or behind the robots.txt exclusion. If we didn't
capture them as they came by, we may be out of luck.

What's available --

Google reports that they should be in
ftp:*.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/pub/forecasts/probMIAPWSAT1 .. 5
but it does not appear to be open for non-Govt FTP. The collection may be
available for academic use through channels, I haven't checked if the UCAR
feed includes an historical repository. Perhaps the UK or EU Met Office can
provide you with archives of WMO FONT11..FONT15 . (They can't charge for
something they got free from us, can they?)

Google Cache has a few older ones, but hardly a complete set. I suspect
Internet Archive's WayBack didn't caputure 4xDay either :=(.

A few sites have the last PWS per storm (not very interesting)
e.g., http://www.outerbeaches.com/Irene = http://www.bluewatergmac.com/Irene

SRHQ's Archive only has the PWSAT4 series for TS Epsilon.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=PWSAT4&max=51

DuPage likewise has a week of history. Note their TOS -- manual browse only,
no spider.
http://kamala.cod.edu/TPC


Sorry not to be more helpful.

Bill in Boston, MA USA
n1vux
.

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