Re: Tornadoes: Accuracy of warnings vs actual touchdowns?? help

In article <MPG.1e2212655724db9d98972f@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx>, Harold Brooks <hebrooks87@xxxxxxxxxxx> wrote:
>In article <pubgr1lmviv4u6d90h1roo3tds2aeuvot3@xxxxxxx>,
>DNC_TN@xxxxxxxxx says...
>> I have watched the refreshing screen the NWS has for all the watches
>> and warnings for severe storms and tornadoes. I have noticed that at
>> times they will display, over a period of many hours, many dozen
>> tornado warnings as red dots. However, when I check the pages with the
>> actual storm reports on the following days, it shows only a few. In
>> fact, in appears that of all those tornado warning dots, that perhaps
>> 10 and at most 15% of those tornado warnings actually formed a
>> tornado.
>>
>> Now, if this is in fact true, then what about those tornadoes that are
>> confirmed where a warning was _never_ even issued?
>>
>> What is the accuracy rate of [issued tornado warning vs confirmed
>> tornadoes]?
>>
>> Also, what is the percentage of times when an actual tornado hits the
>> ground _but_ was never associated with a warning?
>
>Here are the annual tornado warning statistics for the US from 1986-
>1994. POD is the probability that a tornado will have a warned county
>associated with it. FAR is the false alarm ratio, the fraction of the
>warned counties for which there is no tornado.
>
>Year POD FAR
>1986 0.338 0.813
>1987 0.289 0.813
>1988 0.290 0.813
>1989 0.358 0.801
>1990 0.438 0.715
>1991 0.412 0.760
>1992 0.453 0.695
>1993 0.429 0.730
>1994 0.459 0.743
>1995 0.599 0.748
>1996 0.593 0.770
>1997 0.588 0.775
>1998 0.652 0.802
>1999 0.702 0.720
>2000 0.648 0.762
>2001 0.692 0.712
>2002 0.757 0.750
>2003 0.792 0.748
>2004 0.759 0.743
>
>If we limit attention to the strongest tornadoes (F2 or greater, roughly
>10% of the tornadoes), the POD is a little over 0.8 for 2003 and 2004.

Maybe the forecasters suffer from the same problem as folk who assert
they will list data from 1986-1994, then quote twice as much. ;-)

Cheers, Phred.

--
ppnerkDELETE@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

.

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