March-May 2006 90-Day Forecast
- From: "james.munley@xxxxxxxxxxx" <james.munley@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 6 Mar 2006 15:47:37 -0800
MARCH-MAY 2006
90-Day Forecast
300 PM EDT Mon. March 6, 2006
Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical
data, various models, observed cases from past winters and sea surface
temperatures in the tropical Pacific where used in this forecast.
Oceanic and atmospheric indicators show that a La Nina pattern has
developed in the tropical Pacific. Below normal sea surface
temperatures were observed along the Equator and extend west to about
15°W. Most areas are at least 0.5°C below normal. Much above normal
anomalies were observed west of 155°E. However, near normal sea
surface temperatures have developed near the South American coast. La
Nina conditions are expected to persist through the spring season. The
affects are forecast to be minimal.
The upper pattern is forecast to consist of above normal heights in the
northeast Pacific, below normal heights in the West, above normal
heights in the East. Another area of below normal heights are expected
in the north Atlantic.
Above normal temperatures are expected across the southern part of the
nation. The probability of above normal temperatures in this region is
57 percent. Below normal temperatures are forecast across the
Northwest, the northern Rockies and the northern Plains. The
probability of below normal temperatures in this region is 57 percent.
The remainder of the nation is expected to be near normal with no
significant deviation from climatology.
Above normal precipitation is forecast in the Northwest into western
Montana. The probability of above normal precipitation in this region
is 57 percent. Below normal precipitation is forecast across the
southern U.S. The probability of above normal precipitation in this
region is 56 percent. The remainder of the nation is expected to be
near normal with no significant deviation from climatology.
Jim Munley Jr.
http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx
.
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