April 2006 30-Day Forecast

APRIL 2006 30-DAY OUTLOOK
500 PM EST Fri. March 31, 2006
Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical
data, and various models, along with observed cases from past such
months and also data from 1895-2000 were used in this forecast.
Oceanic and atmospheric indicators are consistent in depicting weak La
Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific. Below normal sea surface
temperatures remained confined between 165°E and 155°W. Sea surface
temperatures were above normal in the western Pacific from 100°W to
the South American coast. The oceanic and atmospheric indicators depict
a weal La Nina through April.
Telleconnection indices such as NAO, is currently negative and is
forecast to trend towards neutral. The PNA is currently positive and is
also forecast to trend towards neutral through at least through the
first half of April. The 500 MB pattern is forecast to consist of a
trough in the Gulf of Alaska, a ridge across western Canada, another
trough in eastern Canada. Another ridge will cover the east-central
part of the nation.
The models being used for the temperature forecast are the CFS, SMLR,
OCN and the CCA. Below normal temperatures are forecast across
northern California and the Northwest. The probability of below normal
temperatures in this region is 56 percent. Above normal temperatures
are forecast for the southern tier of states mainly below 35°N. The
probability of above normal temperatures across this region is 57
percent. The remainder of the nation is likely to average near normal
with no significant deviation from normal climatology.
The precipitation forecast is generally based on the CFS and observed
cases. The precipitation pattern is expected to be typical of a La Nina
pattern, with above normal precipitation in the Northwest, the northern
Rockies and the northern Plains. The probability of above normal
precipitation in this region is 57 percent. The remainder of the nation
is expected to average near normal with no significant deviation from
normal climatology.
Jim G. Munley, jr.,
http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx/

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