Re: April 2006 30-Day Forecast


james.munley@xxxxxxxxxxx wrote:
APRIL 2006 30-DAY OUTLOOK
500 PM EST Fri. March 31, 2006

Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical
data, and various models, along with observed cases from past such
months and also data from 1895-2000 were used in this forecast.

Oceanic and atmospheric indicators are consistent in depicting weak La
Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific. Below normal sea surface
temperatures remained confined between 165°E and 155°W. Sea surface
temperatures were above normal in the western Pacific from 100°W to
the South American coast. The oceanic and atmospheric indicators depict
a weal La Nina through April.

You are losing me. I take it we are talking about the waters off Peru
being cold at the time of your drawing up the forecast?

Telleconnection indices such as NAO, is currently negative and is
forecast to trend towards neutral.

What are "Telleconnection indices" the knowck on effect or the current
"current" in the North Atlantic at the time of writing?

The PNA is currently positive and is also forecast to trend towards neutral through
at least through the first half of April. The 500 MB pattern is forecast to consist of a

Care to oblige with further calrification of the above? (Please.)

forecast to consist of a trough in the Gulf of Alaska, a ridge across western Canada,
another trough in eastern Canada. Another ridge will cover the east-central part of the
nation.

I hope you don't think I am being funny with you but is this the nation
of Peru or Canada?

The models being used for the temperature forecast are the CFS, SMLR,
OCN and the CCA. Below normal temperatures are forecast across
northern California and the Northwest. The probability of below normal
temperatures in this region is 56 percent.

50:50 almost?

Above normal temperatures are forecast for the southern tier of states mainly below
35°N. The probability of above normal temperatures across this region is 57
percent. The remainder of the nation is likely to average near normal
with no significant deviation from normal climatology.

I'm sorry but this is all a bit vague. Over 30 days any variations off
the normal will be canceled out giving you something like 50% either
way; which, give or take 7% is exactly what you have given.

The precipitation forecast is generally based on the CFS and observed
cases. The precipitation pattern is expected to be typical of a La Nina
pattern, with above normal precipitation in the Northwest, the northern
Rockies and the northern Plains. The probability of above normal
precipitation in this region is 57 percent. The remainder of the nation
is expected to average near normal with no significant deviation from
normal climatology.

That's the problem with averages when you expect the normal average,
you inevitably get them on average. 9 times out of 10, a one in a
million chancew doesn't apply to them, on average.

If you have something in the way of these UKMO charts I could do you a
run as long as them and further past:
http://groups.google.co.uk/group/uk.sci.weather/browse_frm/thread/509658b1ec041c9b/e8bbfed9092f6e34?q=April+Weatherlawyer&rnum=1#e8bbfed9092f6e34
So if you have the American equivalent give me the link and I shall see
what I can do.

.

Relevant Pages

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