June 2006 30-Day Forecast
- From: "james.munley@xxxxxxxxxxx" <james.munley@xxxxxxxxxxx>
- Date: 31 May 2006 14:30:13 -0700
June 2006 30-DAY OUTLOOK
500 PM EST Wed. May 31, 2006
Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical
data, and various models, along with observed cases from past such
months and also data from 1895-2000 were used in this forecast.
Oceanic and atmospheric indicators indicate a weakening La Nina. Sea
surface temperatures along the equatorial equator in the eastern
Pacific are close to normal. Therefore, little if no impact on the
global circulation during June.
Telleconnection indices such as NAO, is currently negative and is
forecast to trend towards positive through the next two weeks. The PNA
is in a negative phase and is forecast to remain negative through the
first two weeks. The 500 HPA circulation is forecast to consist of a
trough near the Aluetians a ridge in the Southwest with another trough
in the East.
The models are in good agreement with the temperature forecast. They
depict above normal temperatures are forecast across the West into the
southern Plains. The probability of above normal temperatures in this
region is 57 percent. Sea surface temperatures off the West coast are
near normal and may moderate temperatures some along the coast. Also,
above normal sea surface temperatures in the western gulf also favors
above normal temperatures along the western gulf coast. *Below normal
temperatures are forecast from the eastern gulf coast northeastward.
The probability of below normal temperatures in this region is 56
percent. The remainder of the nation is likely to average near normal
with no significant deviation from normal climatology.
Below normal precipitation is forecast for central and southern Plains
and the West. Soil moisture content across Texas and the Southwest
will play a role in this region. The probability of below normal
precipitation in this region is 58 percent. Above normal precipitation
is forecast for the eastern gulf coast northeastward. The probability
of above normal precipitation in this region is 56 percent. The
remainder of the nation is expected to average near normal with no
significant deviation from normal climatology.
James G. Munley, jr.,
http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx/
.
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