Re: Global warming stoked '05 hurricanes

STATEMENT ON TROPICAL CYCLONES AND CLIMATE CHANGE WMO:

Prepared by the WMO/CAS Tropical Meteorology Research Program, Steering
Committee for Project TC-2: Scientific Assessment of Climate Change Effects
on Tropical Cyclones. February 2006

Submitted to CAS-XIV under Agenda Item 7.3 by Dr G. B. Love, Permanent
Representative for Australia .

We consider that the following conclusions of Henderson-Sellers et al (1998)
remain

valid:

Current knowledge and available techniques are not able to provide
robustquantitative indications of potential changes in tropical cyclone
frequency; The modest available evidence points to an expectation of little
or no change in global frequency. Regional and local frequencies could
change substantially in either direction, because of the dependence of
cyclone genesis and track on other phenomena (e.g. ENSO) that are not yet
predictable;. The rapid increase of economic damage and disruption by
tropical cyclones has been caused, to a large extent, by increasing coastal
populations, by increasing insured values in coastal areas and, perhaps, a
rising sensitivity of modern societies to disruptions of infrastructure.

nnnn

Al Gore and his gang is making all the fuzz again with a new report from
NAP.....I assume that dr.Bill
Gray would have a totally different opinion.


"Roger Coppock" <rcoppock@xxxxxxxx> wrote in message
news:1151040855.605828.243160@xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Global warming stoked '05 hurricanes, study says
Posted 6/22/2006 10:41 PM ET
By Dan Vergano, USA TODAY

Global warming helped fuel 2005's destructive hurricane season,
researchers said Thursday. Their study adds to a roiling scientific
debate over the role of climate change in spurring more intense
hurricanes.

"About half of last year's extra (ocean) warmth was due to global
warming," says a co-author of the study, Kevin Trenberth of the
federally funded National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder,
Colo. That translates into an increase in ocean temperatures of just
under 1 degree Fahrenheit above natural year-to-year variability in
temperatures.

According to the study, the 2005 hurricane season was a record one with
28 named storms. The season extended beyond its normal November close,
lasting until Dec. 30. It was the first year on record with three
Category 5 storms, the strongest hurricanes. Hurricane Wilma was the
most intense Atlantic storm; Rita was the most intense in the Gulf of
Mexico; and Katrina was the most damaging storm. It led to the deaths
of more than 1,800 people.

Last month, researchers with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration said there's an 80% chance of an "above-average"
hurricane season with four to six major hurricanes this year. The
season began June 1 and runs till Nov. 30.

To be published next week in the journal Geophysical Research Letters,
the atmospheric research center's study analyzed worldwide sea-surface
temperature records since the early 20th century and compared the
average from 1901-70 with last year's temperatures.

Sea-surface temperatures are key because hurricanes are essentially
heat engines. They draw energy from warm ocean waters and release it in
tremendous storms.

[ . . . ]

Meanwhile Thursday, a National Research Council panel concluded that
the past few decades were very likely the warmest in the past 400
years, and probably in the past several millennia.

HEAT IS HUMANS' FAULT: Study: Earth is hottest now in 2,000 years

[ . . . ]

In presenting the report, panel member Kurt Cuffey of the University of
California, Berkeley, said there is an "enormous" amount of evidence,
independent of temperature reconstructions, that human activities, such
as the burning of fossil fuels, have contributed to global warming.

The article was found at:
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/science/2006-06-22-hurricane-blame_x.htm?POE=TECISVA




.

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