December 2007-February 2008 30-Day Forecast
- From: thunderjim@xxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 3 Dec 2007 20:21:04 -0800 (PST)
DECEMBER 2007-FEBRUARY 2008
90-Day Forecast
530 PM EST Mon. Dec. 3, 2007
Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical
data, various models, observed cases from past summers and sea surface
temperatures in the tropical Pacific where used in this forecast.
La Nina conditions continue to deepen. Sea surface temperatures are
below normal throughout the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific.
Oceanic and atmospheric indicators support a moderate La Nina this
winter.
The NAO is currently in a positive phase and is forecast to trend
towards negative during the next two weeks of December. The PNA is
currently in a negative phase and is forecast to remain negative for
the same period. AO is negative and is forecast to fluctuate but end
up negative. The 500-HPA circulation is forecast to consist of below
normal heights across western North America and positive heights
across the Southeast.
Below normal temperatures are expected across the Northwest and the
northern Rockies. The probability of below normal temperatures in this
region is 59 percent. Above normal temperatures are forecast for a
large part of the nation, from the Plains to the East coast. The
probability of above normal temperatures across this region is 57
percent. The remainder of the nation is expected to be near normal
with no significant deviation from climatology.
Above normal precipitation is expected across the Northwest and the
northern Rockies. The probability of below normal precipitation is
this region is 59 percent. Below normal precipitation is expected
across the southern Rockies, the southern Plains, the lower
Mississippi Valley, the Southeast northward across the mid-Atlantic
and the Northeast. The probability of below normal precipitation
across this region is 57 percent. The remainder of the nation is
expected to be near normal with no significant deviation from
climatology.
Jim Munley Jr.
http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx
.
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