January 2008 30-Day Forecast
- From: jamesmunley@xxxxxxxxxxx
- Date: Mon, 31 Dec 2007 13:27:06 -0800 (PST)
JANUARY 2008 30-DAY OUTLOOK
425 PM EDT Mon. December 31, 2007
Atmospheric patterns, 700 MB and 500 MB height anomalies, statistical
data, and various models, along with observed cases from past such
months and also data from 1895-2000 were used in this forecast.
Sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific are well
below normal. Sea surface temperatures are more than 1 C below normal
from 170E to the South American coast. Local anomalies of -2 to -3C
were observed. The upper heat content in the eastern Pacific remained
below normal. In addition, the low-level easterly winds were stronger
than normal across the central equatorial Pacific. Convection
remained suppressed through the eastern and central equatorial
Pacific. These anomalies are forecast to persist through January.
NAO is currently in a positive phase and is forecast to tend slightly
negative by the mid-month period. The PNA is in a negative phase and
is forecast to trend slightly positive during the same period. Models
are in fairly good agreement with the 500-HPA circulation across North
America. A deep trough will be in the Gulf of Alaska south across
western North America. Ridges will be in the north-central Pacific and
near eastern Canada.
Below normal temperatures are expected across much of the West. The
probability of above normal temperatures in this region is 58 percent.
Above normal temperatures are forecast across the northern Plains, the
upper Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, the Southeast,
Northeast and mid-Atlantic region. The probability of below normal
temperatures occurring across this area is 58 percent. The remainder
of the nation is expected to average near normal with no significant
deviation from normal climatology.
Above normal precipitation is expected from southern California
northward and into the Rockies. The probability of above normal
precipitation in this area is 58 percent. Another area of above normal
precipitation will be from the central gulf coast north through the
lower Mississippi and the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. The probability
of above normal precipitation in this region is 56 percent. Below
normal precipitation is expected across the Southeast and the lower
mid-Atlantic. The probability of above normal precipitation across
this region is 57 percent. The remainder of the nation is expected to
be near normal with no significant deviation from climatology.
Jim Munley Jr.
http://www.geocities.com/jimmunleywx
.
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