Re: What's MEXT in English?

From: Jed Rothwell (jedrothwell_at_earthlink.net)
Date: 08/16/04 

Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 18:59:41 GMT

Paul Blay writes:

> > Perhaps countries like India
> > prove I am wrong, but my prediction is that within a hundred years
nearly
> > everyone on earth will speak English as a second language,
>
> Maybe, I'm not sure a hundred years will be enough to get the majority in
> China.

Well, I spent exactly two weeks in China, and two semesters studying Chinese
history & anthropology, so I know little about it. But my impression is that
people there are learning English in droves, and they are much more
enthusiastic about actually speaking and understanding than people in Japan
are. They intend to master it for practical purposes, just as millions of
other people have done worldwide. That can be done in 100 years. I am not
predicting they will forget Chinese.

> English may well remain as an educated persons technical language (much as
> Latin has been used even after the Roman Empire's long gone) but my bet
> is there will be a new top dog and their _native_ language will be the new
> lingua franca.

I doubt it. I think it is too late for that. English is already too
well-established. It has spread to India, Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong and
many other parts of the world that are likely to be part of dynamic future
economic growth. There is only one other language that might compete in
economic power and importance: Chinese. China might become a superpower like
the US. But when you add up all the countries that speak English as a first
language, and all the ones that speak it as a second language such as Sweden
and Germany (and really, all of the EU, even places like Poland), I think
their combined economic power will remain ahead of China for the next
thousand years or more, unless there is a catastrophe such as nuclear war or
global freezing.

The other reason is that there is no longer animosity toward English because
of its origins. It has become apolitical. The people learning it today no
longer associate it with England or the United States. They consider it
their language as much as anyone else's. Chinese will be bound up with
Chinese politics and culture indefinitely, because there is only one country
where people speak Chinese. But English now represents many different
cultures. After the end of British rule in India, for time resentment
lingered, and it was official policy to do away with English, but nowadays
there would be considered insane. Indian speakers consider English to be
their own property and their birthright -- which it is. See: D. Crystal,
"English as a Global Language," (Cambridge University Press, 1997).

If the Chinese (or Japanese, or Icelanders) colonize another planet, their
language may become dominant on that planet.

- Jed

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